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arxiv:2610.37570

LCM-Promo: An LLM-Based Uplift Model for Promotion Allocation

Published on Oct 27
· Submitted by
Midavaine
on Nov 10
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Abstract

LCM-Promo, a finetuned large language model trained on transactional commerce data, predicts promotion response through monotonic curves and single-token conversion-threshold probabilities, improving conversion and reducing promotion cost in a production A/B test.

We present LCM-Promo, an LLM-based uplift model for promotion allocation. LCM-Promo is a task-specific Large Commerce Model (LCM): a finetuned LLM trained on transactional commerce data to predict user intent and promotion response. It learns monotonic promotion-response curves from production logs by interpreting single-token outputs as conversion-threshold probabilities, while conditioning on session context such as day and delivery shift. In a production A/B test on churn reactivation, LCM-Promo increased conversion by 1% and reduced promotion cost by 6% relative to the Segment-EMA production baseline.

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edited about 14 hours ago

Here is our work on Promotion uplift modeling in collaboration with iFood.

A 6% drop in promotion cost with conversion going up is a result a business can actually feel. How did you check that the learned monotonic curves make sense for rare promotion levels?

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