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Oct 14

The Economics of AI Foundation Models: Openness, Competition, and Governance

The strategic choice of model "openness" has become a defining issue for the foundation model (FM) ecosystem. While this choice is intensely debated, its underlying economic drivers remain underexplored. We construct a two-period game-theoretic model to analyze how openness shapes competition in an AI value chain, featuring an incumbent developer, a downstream deployer, and an entrant developer. Openness exerts a dual effect: it amplifies knowledge spillovers to the entrant, but it also enhances the incumbent's advantage through a "data flywheel effect," whereby greater user engagement today further lowers the deployer's future fine-tuning cost. Our analysis reveals that the incumbent's optimal first-period openness is surprisingly non-monotonic in the strength of the data flywheel effect. When the data flywheel effect is either weak or very strong, the incumbent prefers a higher level of openness; however, for an intermediate range, it strategically restricts openness to impair the entrant's learning. This dynamic gives rise to an "openness trap," a critical policy paradox where transparency mandates can backfire by removing firms' strategic flexibility, reducing investment, and lowering welfare. We extend the model to show that other common interventions can be similarly ineffective. Vertical integration, for instance, only benefits the ecosystem when the data flywheel effect is strong enough to overcome the loss of a potentially more efficient competitor. Likewise, government subsidies intended to spur adoption can be captured entirely by the incumbent through strategic price and openness adjustments, leaving the rest of the value chain worse off. By modeling the developer's strategic response to competitive and regulatory pressures, we provide a robust framework for analyzing competition and designing effective policy in the complex and rapidly evolving FM ecosystem.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 16, 2025

The Model Openness Framework: Promoting Completeness and Openness for Reproducibility, Transparency, and Usability in Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI (GAI) offers unprecedented opportunities for research and innovation, but its commercialization has raised concerns about transparency, reproducibility, and safety. Many open GAI models lack the necessary components for full understanding and reproducibility, and some use restrictive licenses whilst claiming to be ``open-source''. To address these concerns, we propose the Model Openness Framework (MOF), a ranked classification system that rates machine learning models based on their completeness and openness, following principles of open science, open source, open data, and open access. The MOF requires specific components of the model development lifecycle to be included and released under appropriate open licenses. This framework aims to prevent misrepresentation of models claiming to be open, guide researchers and developers in providing all model components under permissive licenses, and help individuals and organizations identify models that can be safely adopted without restrictions. By promoting transparency and reproducibility, the MOF combats ``openwashing'' practices and establishes completeness and openness as primary criteria alongside the core tenets of responsible AI. Wide adoption of the MOF will foster a more open AI ecosystem, benefiting research, innovation, and adoption of state-of-the-art models.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 20, 2024

A Different Approach to AI Safety: Proceedings from the Columbia Convening on Openness in Artificial Intelligence and AI Safety

The rapid rise of open-weight and open-source foundation models is intensifying the obligation and reshaping the opportunity to make AI systems safe. This paper reports outcomes from the Columbia Convening on AI Openness and Safety (San Francisco, 19 Nov 2024) and its six-week preparatory programme involving more than forty-five researchers, engineers, and policy leaders from academia, industry, civil society, and government. Using a participatory, solutions-oriented process, the working groups produced (i) a research agenda at the intersection of safety and open source AI; (ii) a mapping of existing and needed technical interventions and open source tools to safely and responsibly deploy open foundation models across the AI development workflow; and (iii) a mapping of the content safety filter ecosystem with a proposed roadmap for future research and development. We find that openness -- understood as transparent weights, interoperable tooling, and public governance -- can enhance safety by enabling independent scrutiny, decentralized mitigation, and culturally plural oversight. However, significant gaps persist: scarce multimodal and multilingual benchmarks, limited defenses against prompt-injection and compositional attacks in agentic systems, and insufficient participatory mechanisms for communities most affected by AI harms. The paper concludes with a roadmap of five priority research directions, emphasizing participatory inputs, future-proof content filters, ecosystem-wide safety infrastructure, rigorous agentic safeguards, and expanded harm taxonomies. These recommendations informed the February 2025 French AI Action Summit and lay groundwork for an open, plural, and accountable AI safety discipline.

  • 20 authors
·
Jun 27, 2025

Exploring Trade Openness and Logistics Efficiency in the G20 Economies: A Bootstrap ARDL Analysis of Growth Dynamics

This study examines the relationship between trade openness, logistics performance, and economic growth within G20 economies. Using a Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model augmented by a dynamic error correction mechanism (ECM), the analysis quantifies both short run and long run effects of trade facilitation and logistics infrastructure, measured via the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) from 2007 to 2023, on economic growth. The G20, as a consortium of the world's leading economies, exhibits significant variation in logistics efficiency and degrees of trade openness, providing a robust context for comparative analysis. The ARDL-ECM approach, reinforced by bootstrap resampling, delivers reliable estimates even in the presence of small samples and complex variable linkages. Findings are intended to inform policymakers seeking to enhance trade competitiveness and economic development through targeted investment in infrastructure and regulatory reforms supporting trade facilitation. The results underscore the critical role of efficient logistics specifically customs administration, physical infrastructure, and shipment reliability in driving international trade and fostering sustained economic growth. Improvements in these areas can substantially increase a country's trade capacity and overall economic performance.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 30, 2025