Daily Papers

Automated piano performance evaluation traditionally relies on symbolic (MIDI) representations, which capture note-level information but miss the acoustic nuances that characterize expressive playing. I propose using pre-trained audio foundation models, specifically MuQ and MERT, to predict 19 perceptual dimensions of piano performance quality. Using synthesized audio from PercePiano MIDI files (rendered via Pianoteq), I compare audio and symbolic approaches under controlled conditions where both derive from identical source data. The best model, MuQ layers 9-12 with Pianoteq soundfont augmentation, achieves R^2 = 0.537 (95% CI: [0.465, 0.575]), representing a 55% improvement over the symbolic baseline (R^2 = 0.347). Statistical analysis confirms significance (p < 10^-25) with audio outperforming symbolic on all 19 dimensions. I validate the approach through cross-soundfont generalization (R^2 = 0.534 +/- 0.075), difficulty correlation with an external dataset (rho = 0.623), and multi-performer consistency analysis. Analysis of audio-symbolic fusion reveals high error correlation (r = 0.738), explaining why fusion provides minimal benefit: audio representations alone are sufficient. I release the complete training pipeline, pretrained models, and inference code.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

We study the problem of mapping parameter-space variance of a 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) to per-vertex variance. Traditionally, per-vertex variance has been used to visually interpret the learnt parameter uncertainty. However, mapping parameter-space variance to per-vertex using sampling or error propagation is computationally expensive. We address this limitation with Closed-form Local Uncertainty Estimation (CLUE), which transforms the parameter-space distribution of 3DMMs to per-vertex through a closed-form approximation. CLUE emerges from applying the law of total variance to the 3DMM formulation and is modular, computationally inexpensive, and accurate. Subsequently, we study integrating CLUE for in-the-wild human mesh recovery training and inference. We note that CLUE uses the geometry of the mesh as an inductive bias when predicting the variance, leading to improved accuracy. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments, we show that when used in training, CLUE (1) outpeforms probabilistic and deterministic baselines on metrics evaluating joints, mesh and uncertainty, and (2) has the highest uncertainty-to-error spearman correlation, with applications including data mining and interpretable uncertainty. Finally, we share SAM 3D Body (CLUE) which augments the regressor with high resolution uncertainty maps. We make our code available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/CLUE

Crossmodal correspondences between sound and taste are well established in psychology and neuroscience, but largely absent from content-based multimedia retrieval. We formalise taste-from-audio prediction as a content-based music information retrieval benchmark over a perceptually validated multi-source corpus, comparing ten frozen audio encoders from the four HEAR families under a shared multi-task regression head, with gated late-fusion as a configurable variant. In order to assess the effectiveness of the models, we compute absolute error and rank correlation. The strongest systems predict the five tastes within a macro RMSE of 0.134; on held-out real music their error is less than half a single rater's deviation from the consensus (RMSE 0.13 vs. 0.28), so the model tracks the group consensus more closely than an average human rater, and well below the previous state of the art baseline (0.219). On absolute error the encoders are statistically flat, with a single VGGish matching the best fusion, but gated late-fusion's advantage is confined to rank correlation (macro Pearson r 0.724 vs. 0.666). Operationalised as a content-based retrieval index, the predicted taste space ranks a 309-item pool far more faithfully than a CLAP-text baseline, which sits at chance; ridge probes and an audio-bandstop knockout read the strongest representations against documented sound-taste correspondences.

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (SLO) of the eye has become essential to ophthalmology and the emerging field of oculomics, thus requiring a need for transparent, reproducible, and rapid analysis of this data for clinical research and the wider research community. Here, we introduce OCTolyzer, the first open-source toolkit for retinochoroidal analysis in OCT/SLO data. It features two analysis suites for OCT and SLO data, facilitating deep learning-based anatomical segmentation and feature extraction of the cross-sectional retinal and choroidal layers and en face retinal vessels. We describe OCTolyzer and evaluate the reproducibility of its OCT choroid analysis. At the population level, metrics for choroid region thickness were highly reproducible, with a mean absolute error (MAE)/Pearson correlation for macular volume choroid thickness (CT) of 6.7mum/0.99, macular B-scan CT of 11.6mum/0.99, and peripapillary CT of 5.0mum/0.99. Macular choroid vascular index (CVI) also showed strong reproducibility, with MAE/Pearson for volume CVI yielding 0.0271/0.97 and B-scan CVI 0.0130/0.91. At the eye level, measurement noise for regional and vessel metrics was below 5% and 20% of the population's variability, respectively. Outliers were caused by poor-quality B-scans with thick choroids and invisible choroid-sclera boundary. Processing times on a laptop CPU were under three seconds for macular/peripapillary B-scans and 85 seconds for volume scans. OCTolyzer can convert OCT/SLO data into reproducible and clinically meaningful retinochoroidal features and will improve the standardisation of ocular measurements in OCT/SLO image analysis, requiring no specialised training or proprietary software to be used. OCTolyzer is freely available here: https://github.com/jaburke166/OCTolyzer.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Evaluating radiology reports is a challenging problem as factual correctness is extremely important due to the need for accurate medical communication about medical images. Existing automatic evaluation metrics either suffer from failing to consider factual correctness (e.g., BLEU and ROUGE) or are limited in their interpretability (e.g., F1CheXpert and F1RadGraph). In this paper, we introduce GREEN (Generative Radiology Report Evaluation and Error Notation), a radiology report generation metric that leverages the natural language understanding of language models to identify and explain clinically significant errors in candidate reports, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Compared to current metrics, GREEN offers: 1) a score aligned with expert preferences, 2) human interpretable explanations of clinically significant errors, enabling feedback loops with end-users, and 3) a lightweight open-source method that reaches the performance of commercial counterparts. We validate our GREEN metric by comparing it to GPT-4, as well as to error counts of 6 experts and preferences of 2 experts. Our method demonstrates not only higher correlation with expert error counts, but simultaneously higher alignment with expert preferences when compared to previous approaches."

Fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) relies on quantum error correction to suppress physical errors and preserve logical information at scale. In practice, however, performance is constrained not only by physical noise but also by the latency of classical decoders processing rapidly generated syndrome data. This challenge is exacerbated by hardware noise that is strong, heterogeneous, and nonstationary, as well as by the simulation-to-hardware distribution shift that can substantially degrade fixed neural decoders. We present QAdapt, a noise-adaptive neural pre-decoding framework for surface-code quantum error correction. QAdapt captures local spatiotemporal correlations in syndrome data, sequentially adapts to evolving noise conditions while mitigating catastrophic forgetting, and forwards the residual syndrome to a conventional global decoder. Across 110 synthetic out-of-distribution noise configurations for rotated surface-code memory circuits, QAdapt consistently reduces the logical error rate relative to the neural pre-decoding baseline. On Google's Willow benchmark data, without target-domain fine-tuning, it achieves reductions of up to 5.79 percent in logical error rate and 9.32 percent in backend decoding latency on the residual syndrome. These results demonstrate that QAdapt provides a practical and decoder-compatible approach to improving the robustness and backend decoding efficiency of quantum error correction under evolving hardware noise.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Reference-free evaluation metrics for grammatical error correction (GEC) have achieved high correlation with human judgments. However, these metrics are not designed to evaluate adversarial systems that aim to obtain unjustifiably high scores. The existence of such systems undermines the reliability of automatic evaluation, as it can mislead users in selecting appropriate GEC systems. In this study, we propose adversarial attack strategies for four reference-free metrics: SOME, Scribendi, IMPARA, and LLM-based metrics, and demonstrate that our adversarial systems outperform the current state-of-the-art. These findings highlight the need for more robust evaluation methods.

Metric validation in Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) is currently done by observing the correlation between human and metric-induced rankings. However, such correlation studies are costly, methodologically troublesome, and suffer from low inter-rater agreement. We propose MAEGE, an automatic methodology for GEC metric validation, that overcomes many of the difficulties with existing practices. Experiments with \maege\ shed a new light on metric quality, showing for example that the standard M^2 metric fares poorly on corpus-level ranking. Moreover, we use MAEGE to perform a detailed analysis of metric behavior, showing that correcting some types of errors is consistently penalized by existing metrics.

Energy extrapolation is a well-established strategy for approaching quantum-chemical limits without performing prohibitively expensive calculations. Complete basis set extrapolation is widely used, whereas extrapolation across electronic structure methods remains much less developed. Method-Space Effective-Rank Correlation Energy Extrapolation (MERCE) is introduced as an adaptive effective-rank framework for estimating high-rank finite-basis correlation energies from second-order Moller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), coupled cluster with single and double excitations (CCSD), and CCSD with perturbative triples [CCSD(T)]. The method assigns adaptive effective ranks to MP2 and CCSD(T) from the local MP2-CCSD-CCSD(T) correlation energy pattern and fits a compact three-point extrapolation form for each system. A hierarchical model-selection protocol balances cross-dataset transferability, maximum dataset-level mean absolute error (MAE) ratios, robustness on developmental sets referenced to full configuration interaction (FCI), size-consistency defects, and performance for A24 noncovalent interaction energies. Across the chemically diverse benchmarks used during model development, the selected MERCE model substantially reduces CCSD(T) errors and frequently improves upon the tested higher-rank coupled cluster baselines. Transferability is further assessed using calculations performed only after the functional form and parameters were frozen. Formal nonadditivity is quantified using artificial noninteracting pairs and the actual A24 and selected S66 component calculations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various educational tasks, yet their alignment with human learning patterns, particularly in predicting which incorrect options students are most likely to select in multiple-choice questions (MCQs), remains underexplored. Our work investigates the relationship between LLM generation likelihood and student response distributions in MCQs with a specific focus on distractor selections. We collect a comprehensive dataset of MCQs with real-world student response distributions to explore two fundamental research questions: (1). RQ1 - Do the distractors that students more frequently select correspond to those that LLMs assign higher generation likelihood to? (2). RQ2 - When an LLM selects a incorrect choice, does it choose the same distractor that most students pick? Our experiments reveals moderate correlations between LLM-assigned probabilities and student selection patterns for distractors in MCQs. Additionally, when LLMs make mistakes, they are more likley to select the same incorrect answers that commonly mislead students, which is a pattern consistent across both small and large language models. Our work provides empirical evidence that despite LLMs' strong performance on generating educational content, there remains a gap between LLM's underlying reasoning process and human cognitive processes in identifying confusing distractors. Our findings also have significant implications for educational assessment development. The smaller language models could be efficiently utilized for automated distractor generation as they demonstrate similar patterns in identifying confusing answer choices as larger language models. This observed alignment between LLMs and student misconception patterns opens new opportunities for generating high-quality distractors that complement traditional human-designed distractors.

Quantum error correction can suppress logical errors exponentially with code distance when physical noise is below threshold. Realizing this on hardware requires tight coordination among quantum gates, mid-circuit measurements, and qubit coherence. Device variation, noise asymmetry, and correlations across space and time complicate the translation of these capabilities into logical error suppression. Here, we study rotated surface-code memory on an IBM Nighthawk r2 processor. Performance varies across tested processor placements, which we attribute to differences in qubit quality. We optimize the code by combining short readout, fused measurement and reset, and an XX echo on data qubits during ancilla readout. Compared with standard readout without reset or echo, the optimized syndrome extraction circuit reduces the median per-round logical error rate by factors of 3.8 in the X basis and 1.4 in the Z basis. In memory experiments of up to 150 rounds, the distance advantage weakens, alongside long-lived correlations that may reflect a persistent error component. Under our optimization recipe, increasing the protected distance from 3 to 6 while holding the other distance fixed reduces the per-round logical error rate from 0.53% to 0.24% in Z memory and from 0.52% to 0.22% in X memory. The corresponding error-suppression factors under maximum-likelihood decoding are 1.68 and 1.85. These results connect circuit compilation and optimization to surface-code memory performance and limitations, and motivate QPU and QEC circuit codesign for fault-tolerant quantum computing primitives on current cloud hardware.

We propose IMPARA-GED, a novel reference-free automatic grammatical error correction (GEC) evaluation method with grammatical error detection (GED) capabilities. We focus on the quality estimator of IMPARA, an existing automatic GEC evaluation method, and construct that of IMPARA-GED using a pre-trained language model with enhanced GED capabilities. Experimental results on SEEDA, a meta-evaluation dataset for automatic GEC evaluation methods, demonstrate that IMPARA-GED achieves the highest correlation with human sentence-level evaluations.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality samples and enhancing performance across diverse domains through Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). However, the quality of generated samples is highly sensitive to the selection of the guidance weight. In this work, we identify a critical ``training-inference gap'' and we argue that it is the presence of this gap that undermines the performance of conditional generation and renders outputs highly sensitive to the guidance weight. We quantify this gap by measuring the accumulated error during the inference stage and establish a correlation between the selection of guidance weight and minimizing this gap. Furthermore, to mitigate this gap, we propose DiffIER, an optimization-based method for high-quality generation. We demonstrate that the accumulated error can be effectively reduced by an iterative error minimization at each step during inference. By introducing this novel plug-and-play optimization framework, we enable the optimization of errors at every single inference step and enhance generation quality. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in conditional generation tasks. Furthermore, the method achieves consistent success in text-to-image generation, image super-resolution, and text-to-speech generation, underscoring its versatility and potential for broad applications in future research.

Density Functional Theory (DFT) underpins much of modern computational chemistry and materials science. Yet, the reliability of DFT-derived predictions of experimentally measurable properties remains fundamentally limited by the need to approximate the unknown exchange-correlation (XC) functional. The traditional paradigm for improving accuracy has relied on increasingly elaborate hand-crafted functional forms. This approach has led to a longstanding trade-off between computational efficiency and accuracy, which remains insufficient for reliable predictive modelling of laboratory experiments. Here we introduce Skala, a deep learning-based XC functional that surpasses state-of-the-art hybrid functionals in accuracy across the main-group chemistry benchmark set GMTKN55 with an error of 2.8 kcal/mol, while retaining the lower computational cost characteristic of semi-local DFT. This demonstrated departure from the historical trade-off between accuracy and efficiency is enabled by learning non-local representations of electronic structure directly from data, bypassing the need for increasingly costly hand-engineered features. Leveraging an unprecedented volume of high-accuracy reference data from wavefunction-based methods, we establish that modern deep learning enables systematically improvable neural exchange-correlation models as training datasets expand, positioning first-principles simulations to become progressively more predictive.

Is it possible to build a general and automatic natural language generation (NLG) evaluation metric? Existing learned metrics either perform unsatisfactorily or are restricted to tasks where large human rating data is already available. We introduce SESCORE, a model-based metric that is highly correlated with human judgements without requiring human annotation, by utilizing a novel, iterative error synthesis and severity scoring pipeline. This pipeline applies a series of plausible errors to raw text and assigns severity labels by simulating human judgements with entailment. We evaluate SESCORE against existing metrics by comparing how their scores correlate with human ratings. SESCORE outperforms all prior unsupervised metrics on multiple diverse NLG tasks including machine translation, image captioning, and WebNLG text generation. For WMT 20/21 En-De and Zh-En, SESCORE improve the average Kendall correlation with human judgement from 0.154 to 0.195. SESCORE even achieves comparable performance to the best supervised metric COMET, despite receiving no human-annotated training data.

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to fine-grained cross-view geo-localization. Our method aligns a warped ground image with a corresponding GPS-tagged satellite image covering the same area using homography estimation. We first employ a differentiable spherical transform, adhering to geometric principles, to accurately align the perspective of the ground image with the satellite map. This transformation effectively places ground and aerial images in the same view and on the same plane, reducing the task to an image alignment problem. To address challenges such as occlusion, small overlapping range, and seasonal variations, we propose a robust correlation-aware homography estimator to align similar parts of the transformed ground image with the satellite image. Our method achieves sub-pixel resolution and meter-level GPS accuracy by mapping the center point of the transformed ground image to the satellite image using a homography matrix and determining the orientation of the ground camera using a point above the central axis. Operating at a speed of 30 FPS, our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, reducing the mean metric localization error by 21.3% and 32.4% in same-area and cross-area generalization tasks on the VIGOR benchmark, respectively, and by 34.4% on the KITTI benchmark in same-area evaluation.

Quality estimation models have been developed to assess the corrections made by grammatical error correction (GEC) models when the reference or gold-standard corrections are not available. An ideal quality estimator can be utilized to combine the outputs of multiple GEC systems by choosing the best subset of edits from the union of all edits proposed by the GEC base systems. However, we found that existing GEC quality estimation models are not good enough in differentiating good corrections from bad ones, resulting in a low F0.5 score when used for system combination. In this paper, we propose GRECO, a new state-of-the-art quality estimation model that gives a better estimate of the quality of a corrected sentence, as indicated by having a higher correlation to the F0.5 score of a corrected sentence. It results in a combined GEC system with a higher F0.5 score. We also propose three methods for utilizing GEC quality estimation models for system combination with varying generality: model-agnostic, model-agnostic with voting bias, and model-dependent method. The combined GEC system outperforms the state of the art on the CoNLL-2014 test set and the BEA-2019 test set, achieving the highest F0.5 scores published to date.

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance across domains but face scalability challenges in real-time or resource-constrained scenarios. To address this, we propose Correlation of Loss Differences (CLD), a simple and scalable metric for coreset selection that identifies the most impactful training samples by measuring their alignment with the loss trajectories of a held-out validation set. CLD is highly efficient, requiring only per-sample loss values computed at training checkpoints, and avoiding the costly gradient and curvature computations used in many existing subset selection methods. We develop a general theoretical framework that establishes convergence guarantees for CLD-based coresets, demonstrating that the convergence error is upper-bounded by the alignment of the selected samples and the representativeness of the validation set. On CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1k, CLD-based coresets typically outperform or closely match state-of-the-art methods across subset sizes, and remain within 1% of more computationally expensive baselines even when not leading. CLD transfers effectively across architectures (ResNet, VGG, DenseNet), enabling proxy-to-target selection with <1% degradation. Moreover, CLD is stable when using only early checkpoints, incurring negligible accuracy loss. Finally, CLD exhibits inherent bias reduction via per-class validation alignment, obviating the need for additional stratified sampling. Together, these properties make CLD a principled, efficient, stable, and transferable tool for scalable dataset optimization.

We present a novel method for measuring the rate of periodic phenomena (e.g., rotation, flicker, and vibration), by an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels with high temporal resolution. The approach assumes that for a periodic phenomenon, a highly similar set of events is generated within a spatio-temporal window at a time difference corresponding to its period. The sets of similar events are detected by a correlation in the spatio-temporal event stream space. The proposed method, EEPPR, is evaluated on a dataset of 12 sequences of periodic phenomena, i.e. flashing light and vibration, and periodic motion, e.g., rotation, ranging from 3.2 Hz to 2 kHz (equivalent to 192 - 120 000 RPM). EEPPR significantly outperforms published methods on this dataset, achieving a mean relative error of 0.1%, setting new state-of-the-art. The dataset and codes are publicly available on GitHub.

In this paper, we propose a method to improve the accuracy of speech emotion recognition (SER) by using vision transformer (ViT) to attend to the correlation of frequency (y-axis) with time (x-axis) in spectrogram and transferring positional information between ViT through knowledge transfer. The proposed method has the following originality i) We use vertically segmented patches of log-Mel spectrogram to analyze the correlation of frequencies over time. This type of patch allows us to correlate the most relevant frequencies for a particular emotion with the time they were uttered. ii) We propose the use of image coordinate encoding, an absolute positional encoding suitable for ViT. By normalizing the x, y coordinates of the image to -1 to 1 and concatenating them to the image, we can effectively provide valid absolute positional information for ViT. iii) Through feature map matching, the locality and location information of the teacher network is effectively transmitted to the student network. Teacher network is a ViT that contains locality of convolutional stem and absolute position information through image coordinate encoding, and student network is a structure that lacks positional encoding in the basic ViT structure. In feature map matching stage, we train through the mean absolute error (L1 loss) to minimize the difference between the feature maps of the two networks. To validate the proposed method, three emotion datasets (SAVEE, EmoDB, and CREMA-D) consisting of speech were converted into log-Mel spectrograms for comparison experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of weighted accuracy while requiring significantly fewer floating point operations (FLOPs). Overall, the proposed method offers an promising solution for SER by providing improved efficiency and performance.

We perform an average case analysis of the generalization dynamics of large neural networks trained using gradient descent. We study the practically-relevant "high-dimensional" regime where the number of free parameters in the network is on the order of or even larger than the number of examples in the dataset. Using random matrix theory and exact solutions in linear models, we derive the generalization error and training error dynamics of learning and analyze how they depend on the dimensionality of data and signal to noise ratio of the learning problem. We find that the dynamics of gradient descent learning naturally protect against overtraining and overfitting in large networks. Overtraining is worst at intermediate network sizes, when the effective number of free parameters equals the number of samples, and thus can be reduced by making a network smaller or larger. Additionally, in the high-dimensional regime, low generalization error requires starting with small initial weights. We then turn to non-linear neural networks, and show that making networks very large does not harm their generalization performance. On the contrary, it can in fact reduce overtraining, even without early stopping or regularization of any sort. We identify two novel phenomena underlying this behavior in overcomplete models: first, there is a frozen subspace of the weights in which no learning occurs under gradient descent; and second, the statistical properties of the high-dimensional regime yield better-conditioned input correlations which protect against overtraining. We demonstrate that naive application of worst-case theories such as Rademacher complexity are inaccurate in predicting the generalization performance of deep neural networks, and derive an alternative bound which incorporates the frozen subspace and conditioning effects and qualitatively matches the behavior observed in simulation.

Silent data corruption (SDC) threatens the reliability of large-scale GPU clusters used for training large language models, yet its rarity and lack of explicit error signals make accurate high-level modeling challenging. To address this gap, we conducted a large-scale gate-level stuck-at fault injection on a production-class data-center GPU, consuming over three million simulator hours across 63 CUDA micro-benchmarks. We extracted GPU SDC characteristics in terms of corruption types, bit-flip behavior, and warp-aligned spatial correlation. Our results show that NaN/+INF/-INF account for only 1.01% of SDC outcomes, that single-bit flips constitute less than 40% of bit-flip events, and that corruption addresses exhibit periodicity. These statistics motivate distribution-aware high-level fault modeling and realistic software-based fault injection for resilience evaluation of production-class GPU architectures.

Trajectory-based data attribution methods estimate the influence of training samples on model predictions by unrolling the training trajectory. They are widely used in applications such as data selection, data valuation, and model diagnosis, but there is a lack of comprehensive error analysis of these methods, raising concerns about method faithfulness and hindering reliable deployment. In this work, we provide the first systematic analysis of error sources in trajectory-based data attribution, together with concrete remedies to mitigate them and practical guidelines for downstream use. We organize the total error into three categories, config-level, algorithm-level, and system-level. We make three contributions. First, we identify optimizer mismatch as the dominant config-level error: existing methods derive their attribution under the assumption of SGD, even for models trained with the modern de facto optimizer AdamW. We propose AdamW-influence to fully account for AdamW's optimization dynamics, yielding improvements from 10% to over 300% in Spearman correlation between estimated and ground-truth influence across four settings spanning MLP, CNN, GPT-2, and Llama 3.2-1B. Second, we isolate the remaining algorithm-level error arising from the first-order Taylor approximation, identify the learning rate and trajectory length as factors governing the error magnitude, and derive a closed-form error proxy that can be evaluated along the original trajectory without retraining. Third, we translate these insights into practical guidelines for data selection by unifying offline and online strategies under a K-step look-ahead framework. Under this framework, online selection with a short horizon often matches or exceeds offline, and the optimal horizon can be tuned jointly with the learning rate. Together, these results turn the framework into an actionable selection recipe for practitioners.

We construct Feynman rules for Lindblad master equations in the operator language of quantum optics: a fixed algebra of elementary operator moves and closed-form propagators for perturbation theory about an exactly solvable, in most cases Gaussian, generator. The expansion separates into a kinematic part (the shift algebra on the Wick-ordered eigenoperators O_{mn}=:(c^dagger)^m c^n:, from which the vertex table for a specified interaction is assembled) and a dynamical part that enters only through the resolvent of the unperturbed generator, diagonal and additive for any stable, diagonalizable Gaussian L_0, including thermal and squeezed reservoirs and correlated decay, and equally available for a two-level emitter, driven or undriven. In the driven Kerr cavity the loop expansion is the semiclassical expansion and the series is asymptotic. In a strongly driven two-level atom, dressed lines replace a series of finite radius by one accurate deep into saturation, one line per Mollow component. For Kerr rings and chains the cost is polynomial in the number of sites at fixed perturbative order. On a three-site ring the diagrams recover the non-Gaussian part of the three-photon correlation that the Gaussian cumulant closure lacks; carried to tenth order they give the smallest g^{(3)} error of the methods compared for Uleq0.25κ at a cost below that of a fourth-order closure, and third- and fourth-order closures are more accurate at moderate coupling. The same rules, extended to the counting-field-tilted generator, give the photon-counting cumulants of a disordered eight-site chain beyond direct diagonalization; quantum-jump trajectories at three couplings agree with them to within 1.6 standard errors, within one at the strongest coupling, where they place the third cumulant six standard errors above the Gaussian value.

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

Multimodal learning has demonstrated incredible successes by integrating diverse data sources, yet it often relies on the availability of all modalities - an assumption that rarely holds in real-world applications. Pretrained multimodal models, while effective, struggle when confronted with small-scale and incomplete datasets (i.e., missing modalities), limiting their practical applicability. Previous studies on reconstructing missing modalities have overlooked the reconstruction's potential unreliability, which could compromise the quality of the final outputs. We present SURE (Scalable Uncertainty and Reconstruction Estimation), a novel framework that extends the capabilities of pretrained multimodal models by introducing latent space reconstruction and uncertainty estimation for both reconstructed modalities and downstream tasks. Our method is architecture-agnostic, reconstructs missing modalities, and delivers reliable uncertainty estimates, improving both interpretability and performance. SURE introduces a unique Pearson Correlation-based loss and applies statistical error propagation in deep networks for the first time, allowing precise quantification of uncertainties from missing data and model predictions. Extensive experiments across tasks such as sentiment analysis, genre classification, and action recognition show that SURE consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, ensuring robust predictions even in the presence of incomplete data.

DNN-based cross-modal retrieval has become a research hotspot, by which users can search results across various modalities like image and text. However, existing methods mainly focus on the pairwise correlation and reconstruction error of labeled data. They ignore the semantically similar and dissimilar constraints between different modalities, and cannot take advantage of unlabeled data. This paper proposes Cross-modal Deep Metric Learning with Multi-task Regularization (CDMLMR), which integrates quadruplet ranking loss and semi-supervised contrastive loss for modeling cross-modal semantic similarity in a unified multi-task learning architecture. The quadruplet ranking loss can model the semantically similar and dissimilar constraints to preserve cross-modal relative similarity ranking information. The semi-supervised contrastive loss is able to maximize the semantic similarity on both labeled and unlabeled data. Compared to the existing methods, CDMLMR exploits not only the similarity ranking information but also unlabeled cross-modal data, and thus boosts cross-modal retrieval accuracy.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence in legal natural language processing demands scalable methods for evaluating text extraction from judicial decisions. This study evaluates 16 unsupervised metrics, including novel formulations, to assess the quality of extracting seven semantic blocks from 1,000 anonymized Russian judicial decisions, validated against 7,168 expert reviews on a 1--5 Likert scale. These metrics, spanning document-based, semantic, structural, pseudo-ground truth, and legal-specific categories, operate without pre-annotated ground truth. Bootstrapped correlations, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), and mean absolute error (MAE) reveal that Term Frequency Coherence (Pearson r = 0.540, Lin CCC = 0.512, MAE = 0.127) and Coverage Ratio/Block Completeness (Pearson r = 0.513, Lin CCC = 0.443, MAE = 0.139) best align with expert ratings, while Legal Term Density (Pearson r = -0.479, Lin CCC = -0.079, MAE = 0.394) show strong negative correlations. The LLM Evaluation Score (mean = 0.849, Pearson r = 0.382, Lin CCC = 0.325, MAE = 0.197) showed moderate alignment, but its performance, using gpt-4.1-mini via g4f, suggests limited specialization for legal textse. These findings highlight that unsupervised metrics, including LLM-based approaches, enable scalable screening but, with moderate correlations and low CCC values, cannot fully replace human judgment in high-stakes legal contexts. This work advances legal NLP by providing annotation-free evaluation tools, with implications for judicial analytics and ethical AI deployment.

Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) is a single line text representation of a unique molecule. One molecule can however have multiple SMILES strings, which is a reason that canonical SMILES have been defined, which ensures a one to one correspondence between SMILES string and molecule. Here the fact that multiple SMILES represent the same molecule is explored as a technique for data augmentation of a molecular QSAR dataset modeled by a long short term memory (LSTM) cell based neural network. The augmented dataset was 130 times bigger than the original. The network trained with the augmented dataset shows better performance on a test set when compared to a model built with only one canonical SMILES string per molecule. The correlation coefficient R2 on the test set was improved from 0.56 to 0.66 when using SMILES enumeration, and the root mean square error (RMS) likewise fell from 0.62 to 0.55. The technique also works in the prediction phase. By taking the average per molecule of the predictions for the enumerated SMILES a further improvement to a correlation coefficient of 0.68 and a RMS of 0.52 was found.

Acoustic beamforming models typically assume wide-sense stationarity of speech signals within short time frames. However, voiced speech is better modeled as a cyclostationary (CS) process, a random process whose mean and autocorrelation are T_1-periodic, where alpha_1=1/T_1 corresponds to the fundamental frequency of vowels. Higher harmonic frequencies are found at integer multiples of the fundamental. This work introduces a cyclic multichannel Wiener filter (cMWF) for speech enhancement derived from a cyclostationary model. This beamformer exploits spectral correlation across the harmonic frequencies of the signal to further reduce the mean-squared error (MSE) between the target and the processed input. The proposed cMWF is optimal in the MSE sense and reduces to the MWF when the target is wide-sense stationary. Experiments on simulated data demonstrate considerable improvements in scale-invariant signal-to-distortion ratio (SI-SDR) on synthetic data but also indicate high sensitivity to the accuracy of the estimated fundamental frequency alpha_1, which limits effectiveness on real data.

Auto-bidding plays a crucial role in facilitating online advertising by automatically providing bids for advertisers. Reinforcement learning (RL) has gained popularity for auto-bidding. However, most current RL auto-bidding methods are modeled through the Markovian Decision Process (MDP), which assumes the Markovian state transition. This assumption restricts the ability to perform in long horizon scenarios and makes the model unstable when dealing with highly random online advertising environments. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces AI-Generated Bidding (AIGB), a novel paradigm for auto-bidding through generative modeling. In this paradigm, we propose DiffBid, a conditional diffusion modeling approach for bid generation. DiffBid directly models the correlation between the return and the entire trajectory, effectively avoiding error propagation across time steps in long horizons. Additionally, DiffBid offers a versatile approach for generating trajectories that maximize given targets while adhering to specific constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on the real-world dataset and online A/B test on Alibaba advertising platform demonstrate the effectiveness of DiffBid, achieving 2.81% increase in GMV and 3.36% increase in ROI.

Compositional generalization-the ability to interpret novel combinations of familiar components-remains a persistent challenge for neural networks. Behavioral evaluations reveal when models fail but offer limited insight into why failures arise at the representational level. We introduce Homomorphism Error (HE), a structural metric that quantifies deviations from approximate homomorphisms between the expression algebra and a model's hidden-state space. We instantiate HE for two compositional operators in SCAN-style tasks: modifier HE for unary composition and sequence HE for binary composition, measured by learning representation-level operators that predict composed representations from their parts. Across controlled experiments with small decoder-only Transformers, HE predicts out-of-distribution (OOD) compositional generalization under noise injection, achieving R^2 = 0.73 correlation between modifier HE and OOD accuracy. Ablations show that model depth has minimal effect on either HE or OOD accuracy, training data coverage exhibits threshold effects (insufficient coverage sharply increases HE and degrades OOD performance), and randomly inserted noise tokens systematically increase HE. Finally, we test if HE-regularized training improves OOD accuracy. Experiment shows that explicitly enforcing low modifier HE during training significantly reduces modifier HE (p = 1.1x10-4) and sequence HE (p = 0.001) and yields a statistically significant improvement in OOD accuracy (p = 0.023). Together, these results indicate the potential of HE to be both a diagnostic and an actionable training signal for improving compositional generalization. Code to reproduce our experiments is open-sourced.

This study explores the feasibility of using large language models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4o (ChatGPT), for automated grading of conceptual questions in an undergraduate Mechanical Engineering course. We compared the grading performance of GPT-4o with that of human teaching assistants (TAs) on ten quiz problems from the MEEN 361 course at Texas A&M University, each answered by approximately 225 students. Both the LLM and TAs followed the same instructor-provided rubric to ensure grading consistency. We evaluated performance using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to assess the alignment between rankings and the accuracy of scores assigned by GPT-4o and TAs under zero- and few-shot grading settings. In the zero-shot setting, GPT-4o demonstrated a strong correlation with TA grading, with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient exceeding 0.6 in seven out of ten datasets and reaching a high of 0.9387. Our analysis reveals that GPT-4o performs well when grading criteria are straightforward but struggles with nuanced answers, particularly those involving synonyms not present in the rubric. The model also tends to grade more stringently in ambiguous cases compared to human TAs. Overall, ChatGPT shows promise as a tool for grading conceptual questions, offering scalability and consistency.

Large Language Models (LLMs) should refuse to answer questions beyond their knowledge. This capability, which we term knowledge-aware refusal, is crucial for factual reliability. However, existing metrics fail to faithfully measure this ability. On the one hand, simple refusal-based metrics are biased by refusal rates and yield inconsistent scores when models exhibit different refusal tendencies. On the other hand, existing calibration metrics are proxy-based, capturing the performance of auxiliary calibration processes rather than the model's actual refusal behavior. In this work, we propose the Refusal Index (RI), a principled metric that measures how accurately LLMs refuse questions they do not know. We define RI as Spearman's rank correlation between refusal probability and error probability. To make RI practically measurable, we design a lightweight two-pass evaluation method that efficiently estimates RI from observed refusal rates across two standard evaluation runs. Extensive experiments across 16 models and 5 datasets demonstrate that RI accurately quantifies a model's intrinsic knowledge-aware refusal capability in factual tasks. Notably, RI remains stable across different refusal rates and provides consistent model rankings independent of a model's overall accuracy and refusal rates. More importantly, RI provides insight into an important but previously overlooked aspect of LLM factuality: while LLMs achieve high accuracy on factual tasks, their refusal behavior can be unreliable and fragile. This finding highlights the need to complement traditional accuracy metrics with the Refusal Index for comprehensive factuality evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit unexpected errors or unintended behavior, even at scale. While recent work reveals the discrepancy between LLMs and humans in skill compositions, the learning dynamics of skill compositions and the underlying cause of non-human behavior remain elusive. In this study, we investigate the mechanism of learning dynamics by training transformers on synthetic arithmetic tasks. Through extensive ablations and fine-grained diagnostic metrics, we discover that transformers do not reliably build skill compositions according to human-like sequential rules. Instead, they often acquire skills in reverse order or in parallel, which leads to unexpected mixing errors especially under distribution shifts--a phenomenon we refer to as shattered compositionality. To explain these behaviors, we provide evidence that correlational matching to the training data, rather than causal or procedural composition, shapes learning dynamics. We further show that shattered compositionality persists in modern LLMs and is not mitigated by pure model scaling or scratchpad-based reasoning. Our results reveal a fundamental mismatch between a model's learning behavior and desired skill compositions, with implications for reasoning reliability, out-of-distribution robustness, and alignment.

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems have achieved remarkable performance on widely used benchmarks such as LibriSpeech and Fleurs. However, these benchmarks do not adequately reflect the complexities of real-world conversational environments, where speech is often unstructured and contains disfluencies such as pauses, interruptions, and diverse accents. In this study, we introduce a multilingual conversational dataset, derived from TalkBank, consisting of unstructured phone conversation between adults. Our results show a significant performance drop across various state-of-the-art ASR models when tested in conversational settings. Furthermore, we observe a correlation between Word Error Rate and the presence of speech disfluencies, highlighting the critical need for more realistic, conversational ASR benchmarks.

Spectrograms are pivotal in time-frequency signal analysis, widely used in audio processing and computational neuroscience. Chirp-like patterns in electroencephalogram (EEG) spectrograms (marked by linear or exponential frequency sweep) are key biomarkers for seizure dynamics, but automated tools for their detection, localization, and feature extraction are lacking. This study bridges this gap by fine-tuning a Vision Transformer (ViT) model on synthetic spectrograms, augmented with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to boost adaptability. We generated 100000 synthetic spectrograms with chirp parameters, creating the first large-scale benchmark for chirp localization. These spectrograms mimic neural chirps using linear or exponential frequency sweep, Gaussian noise, and smoothing. A ViT model, adapted for regression, predicted chirp parameters. LoRA fine-tuned the attention layers, enabling efficient updates to the pre-trained backbone. Training used MSE loss and the AdamW optimizer, with a learning rate scheduler and early stopping to curb overfitting. Only three features were targeted: Chirp Start Time (Onset Time), Chirp Start Frequency (Onset Frequency), and Chirp End Frequency (Offset Frequency). Performance was evaluated via Pearson correlation between predicted and actual labels. Results showed strong alignment: 0.9841 correlation for chirp start time, with stable inference times (137 to 140s) and minimal bias in error distributions. This approach offers a tool for chirp analysis in EEG time-frequency representation, filling a critical methodological void.

With the emergence of large-scale vision language models (VLM), it is now possible to produce realistic-looking radiology reports for chest X-ray images. However, their clinical translation has been hampered by the factual errors and hallucinations in the produced descriptions during inference. In this paper, we present a novel phrase-grounded fact-checking model (FC model) that detects errors in findings and their indicated locations in automatically generated chest radiology reports. Specifically, we simulate the errors in reports through a large synthetic dataset derived by perturbing findings and their locations in ground truth reports to form real and fake findings-location pairs with images. A new multi-label cross-modal contrastive regression network is then trained on this dataset. We present results demonstrating the robustness of our method in terms of accuracy of finding veracity prediction and localization on multiple X-ray datasets. We also show its effectiveness for error detection in reports of SOTA report generators on multiple datasets achieving a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.997 with ground truth-based verification, thus pointing to its utility during clinical inference in radiology workflows.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Cross-assignment of directional wave spectra is a critical task in wave data assimilation. Traditionally, most methods rely on two-parameter spectral distances or energy ranking approaches, which often fail to account for the complexities of the wave field, leading to inaccuracies. To address these limitations, we propose the Controlled Four-Parameter Method (C4PM), which independently considers four integrated wave parameters. This method enhances the accuracy and robustness of cross-assignment by offering flexibility in assigning weights and controls to each wave parameter. We compare C4PM with a two-parameter spectral distance method using data from two buoys moored 13 km apart in deep water. Although both methods produce negligible bias and high correlation, C4PM demonstrates superior performance by preventing the occurrence of outliers and achieving a lower root mean square error across all parameters. The negligible computational cost and customization make C4PM a valuable tool for wave data assimilation, improving the reliability of forecasts and model validations.

We study the geometric structure of layer updates in deep language models. Rather than analyzing what information is encoded in intermediate representations, we ask how representations change from one layer to the next. We show that layerwise updates admit a decomposition into a dominant tokenwise component and a residual that is not captured by restricted tokenwise function classes. Across multiple architectures, including Transformers and state-space models, we find that the full layer update is almost perfectly aligned with the tokenwise component, while the residual exhibits substantially weaker alignment, larger angular deviation, and significantly lower projection onto the dominant tokenwise subspace. This indicates that the residual is not merely a small correction, but a geometrically distinct component of the transformation. This geometric separation has functional consequences: approximation error under the restricted tokenwise model is strongly associated with output perturbation, with Spearman correlations often exceeding 0.7 and reaching up to 0.95 in larger models. Together, these results suggest that most layerwise updates behave like structured reparameterizations along a dominant direction, while functionally significant computation is concentrated in a geometrically distinct residual component. Our framework provides a simple, architecture-agnostic method for probing the geometric and functional structure of layer updates in modern language models.

Visual search is a fundamental cognitive ability. This study investigates whether Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit human-like difficulty signatures in visual search tasks. We compared search performance of humans (n = 1,250) and MLLMs using identical 2D and 3D stimuli across different set sizes. Both groups showed efficient performance in feature searches, most clearly when the target had a unique color, but performance degradation in conjunction searches as set sizes increased. Additionally, we found strong correlations between human and MLLM error rates (ρ= 0.82), which suggests that MLLMs are sensitive to similar objective complexities, such as stimulus heterogeneity. However, differences were found as well: whereas humans invested extra search time to respond accurately on target-absent trials, MLLMs exhibited extreme present/absent response biases in complex searches. We conclude that MLLMs replicate high-level human performance signatures, yet their underlying computations differ significantly.

Recent advances in tabular data generation have greatly enhanced synthetic data quality. However, extending diffusion models to tabular data is challenging due to the intricately varied distributions and a blend of data types of tabular data. This paper introduces Tabsyn, a methodology that synthesizes tabular data by leveraging a diffusion model within a variational autoencoder (VAE) crafted latent space. The key advantages of the proposed Tabsyn include (1) Generality: the ability to handle a broad spectrum of data types by converting them into a single unified space and explicitly capture inter-column relations; (2) Quality: optimizing the distribution of latent embeddings to enhance the subsequent training of diffusion models, which helps generate high-quality synthetic data, (3) Speed: much fewer number of reverse steps and faster synthesis speed than existing diffusion-based methods. Extensive experiments on six datasets with five metrics demonstrate that Tabsyn outperforms existing methods. Specifically, it reduces the error rates by 86% and 67% for column-wise distribution and pair-wise column correlation estimations compared with the most competitive baselines.

When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.

We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of the Integrated Brier Score (IBS) that showed robust correlation with the mean squared error (MSE) between the true and predicted probabilities by accounting for implied truths about the missing intermediate events. We demonstrated the superiority of SurvSurf compared to modern and traditional predictive survival models in two simulated datasets and two real-world datasets, using MSE, the more robust IBS and by measuring the extent of monotonicity violation.

Real-world evaluation is the gold standard for robot policies because it tests them against the physical conditions and deployment challenges they are ultimately designed to handle. However, real-world evaluation is also the bottleneck for iterating on robot policies: it is costly, difficult to reproduce, and often too sparse to reliably compare nearby model variants. A straightforward proxy for performance is validation loss on expert demonstrations, but this proxy is often poorly correlated with real-world performance. In this paper, we introduce Critical Interval MSE (CI-MSE), an intuitively simple yet effective offline validation metric. CI-MSE restricts error computation to task-critical segments and pairs it with simple action-alignment procedures that better match rollout-time behavior. Across simulation and real-world experiments, CI-MSE yields a stronger correlation between validation error and rollout performance than raw MSE. Across a wide range of policy checkpoints, CI-MSE achieves a Spearman's rank correlation of -0.87, much closer to the ideal value of -1 than raw MSE's -0.61, demonstrating a significant improvement. We show through sensitivity analysis that our metric is robust to a wide range of hyperparameters. We further study the effectiveness of CI-MSE under evaluation distribution shifts and suggest design boundaries when using this metric. In summary, this paper provides a simple and reliable offline validation tool for accelerating policy iteration. Project webpage: https://ci-mse.github.io/

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is commonly used as a proxy for reliability in language models, but low calibration error does not necessarily imply reliable decision rules, as models may rely on spurious correlations while remaining well calibrated. We investigate this gap in generative language models using the multiple-choice question-answering evaluation protocol on the TOFU benchmark, measuring probabilistic reliability with calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, Brier) and decision-rule reliability via attribution-based shortcut detection with Integrated Gradients and Local Mutual Information. We find that fine-tuned models achieve low calibration error (ECE ~ 0.04) compared to pretrained models (ECE > 0.5), and models after unlearning retain similarly low calibration despite reduced accuracy on the forget split, while attribution analysis shows increased reliance on correlation-based tokens. These results demonstrate that good calibration can coexist with shortcut-based decision rules after unlearning, extending the reliability paradox to the machine unlearning setting.

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce WattGPU, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of leq3.4% for offline and leq13.5% for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves leq8.5% in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall τgeq0.76). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4times on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2times for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

KV cache quantization can improve Large Language Models (LLMs) inference throughput and latency in long contexts and large batch-size scenarios while preserving LLMs effectiveness. However, current methods have three unsolved issues: overlooking layer-wise sensitivity to KV cache quantization, high overhead of online fine-grained decision-making, and low flexibility to different LLMs and constraints. Therefore, we theoretically analyze the inherent correlation of layer-wise transformer attention patterns to KV cache quantization errors and study why key cache is generally more important than value cache for quantization error reduction. We further propose a simple yet effective framework KVTuner to adaptively search for the optimal hardware-friendly layer-wise KV quantization precision pairs for coarse-grained KV cache with multi-objective optimization and directly utilize the offline searched configurations during online inference. To reduce the computational cost of offline calibration, we utilize the intra-layer KV precision pair pruning and inter-layer clustering to reduce the search space. Experimental results show that we can achieve nearly lossless 3.25-bit mixed precision KV cache quantization for LLMs like Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and 4.0-bit for sensitive models like Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct on mathematical reasoning tasks. The maximum inference throughput can be improved by 21.25\% compared with KIVI-KV8 quantization over various context lengths. Our code and searched configurations are available at https://github.com/cmd2001/KVTuner.

Sharpness of minima is a promising quantity that can correlate with generalization in deep networks and, when optimized during training, can improve generalization. However, standard sharpness is not invariant under reparametrizations of neural networks, and, to fix this, reparametrization-invariant sharpness definitions have been proposed, most prominently adaptive sharpness (Kwon et al., 2021). But does it really capture generalization in modern practical settings? We comprehensively explore this question in a detailed study of various definitions of adaptive sharpness in settings ranging from training from scratch on ImageNet and CIFAR-10 to fine-tuning CLIP on ImageNet and BERT on MNLI. We focus mostly on transformers for which little is known in terms of sharpness despite their widespread usage. Overall, we observe that sharpness does not correlate well with generalization but rather with some training parameters like the learning rate that can be positively or negatively correlated with generalization depending on the setup. Interestingly, in multiple cases, we observe a consistent negative correlation of sharpness with out-of-distribution error implying that sharper minima can generalize better. Finally, we illustrate on a simple model that the right sharpness measure is highly data-dependent, and that we do not understand well this aspect for realistic data distributions. The code of our experiments is available at https://github.com/tml-epfl/sharpness-vs-generalization.

We introduce the AIM 2024 UHD-IQA Challenge, a competition to advance the No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) task for modern, high-resolution photos. The challenge is based on the recently released UHD-IQA Benchmark Database, which comprises 6,073 UHD-1 (4K) images annotated with perceptual quality ratings from expert raters. Unlike previous NR-IQA datasets, UHD-IQA focuses on highly aesthetic photos of superior technical quality, reflecting the ever-increasing standards of digital photography. This challenge aims to develop efficient and effective NR-IQA models. Participants are tasked with creating novel architectures and training strategies to achieve high predictive performance on UHD-1 images within a computational budget of 50G MACs. This enables model deployment on edge devices and scalable processing of extensive image collections. Winners are determined based on a combination of performance metrics, including correlation measures (SRCC, PLCC, KRCC), absolute error metrics (MAE, RMSE), and computational efficiency (G MACs). To excel in this challenge, participants leverage techniques like knowledge distillation, low-precision inference, and multi-scale training. By pushing the boundaries of NR-IQA for high-resolution photos, the UHD-IQA Challenge aims to stimulate the development of practical models that can keep pace with the rapidly evolving landscape of digital photography. The innovative solutions emerging from this competition will have implications for various applications, from photo curation and enhancement to image compression.

Off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to automate text annotation, yet their effectiveness remains underexplored for underrepresented languages and specialized domains where the class definition requires subtle expert understanding. We investigate LLM-based annotation for a novel legal NLP task: identifying the presence and sentiment of credibility assessments in asylum decision texts. We introduce RAB-Cred, a Danish text classification dataset featuring high-quality, expert annotations and valuable metadata such as annotator confidence and asylum case outcome. We benchmark 21 open-weight models and 30 system-user prompt combinations for this task, and systematically evaluate the effect of model and prompt choice for zero-shot and few-shot classification. We zoom in on the errors made by top-performing models and prompts, investigating error consistency across LLMs, inter-class confusion, correlation with human confidence and sample-wise difficulty and severity of LLM mistakes. Our results confirm the potential of LLMs for cost-effective labeling of asylum decisions, but highlight the imperfect and inconsistent nature of LLM annotators, and the need to look beyond the predictions of a single, arbitrarily chosen model. The RAB-Cred dataset and code are available at https://github.com/glhr/RAB-Cred

LLM judges are used to reduce the need for costly human labor in evaluating open-ended text generation. However, the reliability of these judges depends critically on their alignment with human raters -- a property that itself depends on costly human annotations. In this work, we develop a method (Metric Match) for estimating correlation-based reliability metrics of LLM judges from limited annotations. Metric Match selects a subset of samples for human annotation such that the subset matches the population reliability metric with respect to acquired synthetic labels. We empirically show that Metric Match achieves a win-rate of 0.838 against random subset selection across four different correlation metrics and 15 datasets, with an 18.7% decrease in average estimation error and reduces annotation needs by 32.5%. We provide a cost model and highlight a medical case study where our method saves $1,041.67 compared to random selection for expert annotation. Further, we shift our task from reliability estimation to reliability classification of whether a given judge is above a deployment threshold, outperforming random selection with Metric Match. All project code is publicly available, and we additionally provide an installable package for ease of use.

Automatic prompt engineering (APE) rewrites prompts to improve downstream task performance, but existing APE loops treat the optimizer itself as a fixed pipeline. We port the code-as-action paradigm of CodeAct (Wang et al., 2024a) to APE and propose SPEAR (Sandboxed Prompt Engineer with Active Roll-back), a free-form agentic optimizer with four tools -- evaluate, python, set_prompt, finish -- that decides autonomously how and when to use them. The distinctive tool is the Python sandbox: the optimizer writes and executes arbitrary Python on the current evaluation DataFrame, performing structural error analysis (confusion matrices, error clustering, per group metrics) the agent itself authors. Two guardrails turn the long-horizon agent into a monotone-improving optimizer: auto-rollback on metric regression, and an optional guard metric floor. We evaluate on three industrial LLM-as-judge suites (13 judge tasks across recruiter-intake, conversational-memory, and query-refinement systems) plus seven BBH tasks and GSM8K. SPEAR wins every industrial task on the primary metric (κ 0.857 vs 0.359 on tool-selection; F1-macro 0.815 vs 0.763 on filter-relevance; κ 0.254 vs 0.218 on the hardest extraction dimension). On BBH-7 SPEAR averages 0.938 accuracy vs GEPA 0.628 and TextGrad 0.484. Ablations show the Python tool is the largest single lever on complex judge tasks (Δapprox +0.79κ on the 5-class tool-selection judge, Δapprox +0.35κ on the hardest extraction dimension when removed); its irreplaceable contribution is class-pair confusion aggregation that a long-context LLM cannot extract reliably from the raw eval DataFrame.

Evaluating data-text alignment remains challenging: existing metrics often provide limited explanations for the scores, while prompt-based LLM-as-Judge methods can be expensive and unreliable. We present an end-to-end explainable evaluation metric that fine-tunes a language model to identify omitted, extra, incorrect, and correct data units in a data-text pair. These local judgements are aggregated into precision, recall, and F1 scores, providing both fine-grained diagnostic feedback and an interpretable measure of alignment quality. Across benchmarks, our fine-tuned models outperform LLM-as-Judge methods in error prediction and achieve competitive precision, recall, and F1 scores, while maintaining strong correlation with human judgements. Beyond evaluation, our verifier outputs also provide useful feedback signals for downstream correction and refinement, supporting alignment-oriented improvement of data-to-text and text-to-data. Code and resources are available at https://github.com/guihuzhang/xqdt.

Visualization, a domain-specific yet widely used form of imagery, is an effective way to turn complex datasets into intuitive insights, and its value depends on whether data are faithfully represented, clearly communicated, and aesthetically designed. However, evaluating visualization quality is challenging: unlike natural images, it requires simultaneous judgment across data encoding accuracy, information expressiveness, and visual aesthetics. Although multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown promising performance in aesthetic assessment of natural images, no systematic benchmark exists for measuring their capabilities in evaluating visualizations. To address this, we propose VisJudge-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating MLLMs' performance in assessing visualization aesthetics and quality. It contains 3,090 expert-annotated samples from real-world scenarios, covering single visualizations, multiple visualizations, and dashboards across 32 chart types. Systematic testing on this benchmark reveals that even the most advanced MLLMs (such as GPT-5) still exhibit significant gaps compared to human experts in judgment, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.551 and a correlation with human ratings of only 0.429. To address this issue, we propose VisJudge, a model specifically designed for visualization aesthetics and quality assessment. Experimental results demonstrate that VisJudge significantly narrows the gap with human judgment, reducing the MAE to 0.442 (a 19.8% reduction) and increasing the consistency with human experts to 0.681 (a 58.7% improvement) compared to GPT-5. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/VisJudgeBench.

Accurate, continuous out-of-hospital electrocardiogram (ECG) parameter measurement is vital for real-time cardiac health monitoring and telemedicine. On-device computation of single-lead ECG parameters enables timely assessment without reliance on centralized data processing, advancing personalized, ubiquitous cardiac care-yet comprehensive validation across heterogeneous real-world populations remains limited. This study validated the on-device algorithm FeatureDB (https://github.com/PKUDigitalHealth/FeatureDB) using two datasets: HeartVoice-ECG-lite (369 participants with single-lead ECGs annotated by two physicians) and PTB-XL/PTB-XL+ (21,354 patients with 12-lead ECGs and physicians' diagnostic annotations). FeatureDB computed PR, QT, and QTc intervals, with accuracy evaluated against physician annotations via mean absolute error (MAE), correlation analysis, and Bland-Altman analysis. Diagnostic performance for first-degree atrioventricular block (AVBI, PR-based) and long QT syndrome (LQT, QTc-based) was benchmarked against commercial 12-lead systems (12SL, Uni-G) and open-source algorithm Deli, using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results showed high concordance with expert annotations (Pearson correlations: 0.836-0.960), MAEs matching inter-observer variability, and minimal bias. AVBI AUC reached 0.787 (12SL: 0.859; Uni-G: 0.812; Deli: 0.501); LQT AUC was 0.684 (12SL: 0.716; Uni-G: 0.605; Deli: 0.569)-comparable to commercial tools and superior to open-source alternatives. FeatureDB delivers physician-level parameter accuracy and commercial-grade abnormality detection via single-lead devices, supporting scalable telemedicine, decentralized cardiac screening, and continuous monitoring in community and outpatient settings.

Speech quality assessment is a critical process in selecting text-to-speech synthesis (TTS) or voice conversion models. Evaluation of voice synthesis can be done using objective metrics or subjective metrics. Although there are many objective metrics like the Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ), Perceptual Objective Listening Quality Assessment (POLQA) or Short-Time Objective Intelligibility (STOI) but none of them is feasible in selecting the best model. On the other hand subjective metric like Mean Opinion Score is highly reliable but it requires a lot of manual efforts and are time-consuming. To counter the issues in MOS Evaluation, we have developed a novel model, Speaker Agnostic Latent Features (SALF)-Mean Opinion Score (MOS) which is a small-sized, end-to-end, highly generalized and scalable model for predicting MOS score on a scale of 5. We use the sequences of convolutions and stack them to get the latent features of the audio samples to get the best state-of-the-art results based on mean squared error (MSE), Linear Concordance Correlation coefficient (LCC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCC) and Kendall Rank Correlation Coefficient (KTAU).

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse natural language processing tasks, yet they remain susceptible to hallucinations -- generating content that is factually incorrect, unfaithful to provided context, or misaligned with user instructions. We present HalluScan, a comprehensive benchmark framework that systematically evaluates hallucination detection and mitigation across 72 configurations spanning 6 detection methods, 4 open-weight model families, and 3 diverse domains. We introduce three key contributions: (1) HalluScore, a novel composite metric that achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.41 with human expert judgments; (2) Adaptive Detection Routing (ADR), an intelligent routing algorithm achieving 2.0x cost reduction with only 0.1% AUROC degradation; and (3) systematic error cascade decomposition revealing substantial variation in hallucination error types across domains. Our experiments reveal that NLI Verification achieves the highest overall AUROC of 0.88, while RAV achieves the second-highest AUROC of 0.66.

Radar-based contactless cardiac monitoring has become a popular research direction recently, but the fine-grained electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is still hard to reconstruct from millimeter-wave radar signal. The key obstacle is to decouple the cardiac activities in the electrical domain (i.e., ECG) from that in the mechanical domain (i.e., heartbeat), and most existing research only uses pure data-driven methods to map such domain transformation as a black box. Therefore, this work first proposes a signal model for domain transformation, and then a novel deep learning framework called radarODE is designed to fuse the temporal and morphological features extracted from radar signals and generate ECG. In addition, ordinary differential equations are embedded in radarODE as a decoder to provide morphological prior, helping the convergence of the model training and improving the robustness under body movements. After being validated on the dataset, the proposed radarODE achieves better performance compared with the benchmark in terms of missed detection rate, root mean square error, Pearson correlation coefficient with the improvement of 9%, 16% and 19%, respectively. The validation results imply that radarODE is capable of recovering ECG signals from radar signals with high fidelity and can be potentially implemented in real-life scenarios.

Visual complexity prediction is a fundamental problem in computer vision with applications in image compression, retrieval, and classification. Understanding what makes humans perceive an image as complex is also a long-standing question in cognitive science. Recent approaches have leveraged multimodal models that combine visual and linguistic representations, but it remains unclear whether language information is necessary for this task. We propose DReX (DINO-ResNet Fusion), a vision-only model that fuses self-supervised and convolutional representations through a learnable attention mechanism to predict image complexity. Our architecture integrates multi-scale hierarchical features from ResNet-50 with semantically rich representations from DINOv3 ViT-S/16, enabling the model to capture both low-level texture patterns and high-level semantic structure. DReX achieves state-of-the-art performance on the IC9600 benchmark (Pearson r = 0.9581), surpassing previous methods--including those trained on multimodal image-text data--while using approximately 21.5x fewer learnable parameters. Furthermore, DReX generalizes robustly across multiple datasets and metrics, achieving superior results on Pearson and Spearman correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Ablation and attention analyses confirm that DReX leverages complementary cues from both backbones, with the DINOv3 [CLS] token enhancing sensitivity to visual complexity. Our findings suggest that visual features alone can be sufficient for human-aligned complexity prediction and that, when properly fused, self-supervised transformers and supervised deep convolutional neural networks offer complementary and synergistic benefits for this task.

Physics-informed surrogate models can accelerate computational fluid dynamics simulations. However, many existing methods reproduce global flow patterns more reliably than localized multiscale structures. This study presents a physics-informed Fourier-wavelet transformer for next-step velocity-field reconstruction in real-world flow benchmarks. The proposed formulation combines hybrid Fourier-wavelet spectral encoding with physics-biased self-attention based on partial differential equation residual diagnostics. It also uses self-supervised pretraining through Masked Physics Prediction and Equation Consistency Prediction. The experiments are conducted on two real benchmark cases: cylinder-wake flow and fluid-structure interaction. All approaches are evaluated under a shared local protocol and compared with spectral, transformer-based, operator-learning, and physics-informed neural-network baselines. On the cylinder-wake benchmark, the proposed model achieves the best aggregate accuracy, with an all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 0.05875 and an all-channel Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97019. On the fluid-structure-interaction benchmark, it gives the lowest all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 2.70 times 10^{-4}, compared with 4.02 times 10^{-4} for the strongest baseline. Component-wise field comparisons and scale-separated diagnostics further show stronger recovery of localized wake structures, including near-body, wake-core, and far-wake features. The results demonstrate improved real-world flow reconstruction while maintaining a practical accuracy-cost tradeoff.

Evaluating LLM agents on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and GAIA can be expensive, time-consuming, and requires complex infrastructure. A single evaluation can cost thousands of dollars and take days to complete. In contrast, non-agentic LLM benchmarks that test individual capabilities (e.g., reasoning, code generation) are fast and cheap to run. In this paper, we investigate whether performance on expensive agentic benchmarks can be accurately predicted by the performance on a small, carefully selected subset of atomic evaluation instances. We introduce PACE, a framework that constructs proxy benchmarks by selecting instances from existing non-agentic evaluations whose aggregate scores most reliably predict model performances on agentic benchmarks. Given a pool of candidate instances spanning atomic capabilities, PACE fits a regression that maps a model's scores on a compact subset of source instances to its score on the target agentic benchmark. The subset itself is curated by combining two complementary instance-selection strategies, target-relevance local selection and globally informative global selection. We apply PACE to the 4 target agentic benchmarks in this paper, which yields PACE-Bench, the concrete proxy benchmark that we evaluate in the paper. Experiments across 14 models, 4 agentic benchmarks, and 19 non-agentic benchmarks show that PACE-Bench predicts agentic scores with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) mean absolute error (MAE) under 4%, Spearman correlation above 0.80, and pairwise model-ranking accuracy around 85%, all at much less than 1% of the full agentic evaluation cost. We further analyze the selected proxy instances, revealing which skills each agentic benchmark uniquely demands. PACE enables practitioners to obtain reliable estimates of agentic performance during model development, selection, and routing, without the overhead of full agent evaluation.

Predicting transcriptomic responses to small-molecule perturbations across cell lines is central to drug discovery, but exhaustive profiling of drug-cell combinations is infeasible. We frame molecular perturbation prediction as retrieve-and-aggregate: approximate an unmeasured drug's response in a cell line by aggregating measured responses of a small set of biologically related compounds. We propose LLM-Guided Retrieval (LGR), where a large language model (LLM) ranks candidate neighbor drugs (restricted to those profiled in the target cell line); after which a fixed mean aggregator combines their observed expression deltas to form the prediction. We evaluate on the Tahoe-100M single-cell perturbation atlas under unseen-drug, unseen-cell-line, and open-world regimes. LGR consistently improves over drug mean, ChemCPA, and chemistry-based kNN baselines, with the strongest gains for unseen cell-line generalization, where it achieves higher correlation and lower error than mean baselines. Across settings, LGR improves directional (sign) accuracy of gene regulation, indicating better recovery of biologically meaningful perturbation effects even when magnitude-based metrics are similar. These results suggest that retrieval quality, rather than predictor complexity, is a key driver of zero-shot molecular perturbation prediction, and that LLMs can provide a useful biological prior when used as constrained retrieval modules.

We propose SnapPhysics, a training-free framework that reconstructs 3D objects and estimates their physical properties such as mass, friction, and center of gravity from a single image. For physically coherent interactions in mixed reality (MR), such properties are as important as geometry. Prior approaches infer them by analyzing object dynamics in video, which is computationally costly, or by querying vision-language models (VLMs) on single images, which lacks geometric grounding and inter-object relationships. We address these limitations by combining instance-level 3D reconstruction and spatial alignment with a physics-aware scene graph that encodes these relationships and per-object metric geometry as structured context for VLM-based property reasoning. Experiments on 3D-FRONT show that SnapPhysics improves scene-level F-Score by 18.6% over the best learning-based method, and on real captured scenes with ground-truth mass, it reduces the mean absolute log difference error (mALDE) by up to 20.5% and improves log-scale correlation (r^2_{ls}) by up to 19.6% over VLM-only estimation. SnapPhysics enables physically interactive MR experiences without manual parameter tuning. Project page: https://snapphysics-ismar2026.github.io/.

Despite recent advances in Large Video Language Models (LVLMs), they still struggle with fine-grained temporal understanding, hallucinate, and often make simple mistakes on even simple video question-answering tasks, all of which pose significant challenges to their safe and reliable deployment in real-world applications. To address these limitations, we propose a self-alignment framework that enables LVLMs to learn from their own errors. Our proposed framework first obtains a training set of preferred and non-preferred response pairs, where non-preferred responses are generated by incorporating common error patterns that often occur due to inadequate spatio-temporal understanding, spurious correlations between co-occurring concepts, and over-reliance on linguistic cues while neglecting the vision modality, among others. To facilitate self-alignment of LVLMs with the constructed preferred and non-preferred response pairs, we introduce Refined Regularized Preference Optimization (RRPO), a novel preference optimization method that utilizes sub-sequence-level refined rewards and token-wise KL regularization to address the limitations of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). We demonstrate that RRPO achieves more precise alignment and more stable training compared to DPO. Our experiments and analysis validate the effectiveness of our approach across diverse video tasks, including video hallucination, short- and long-video understanding, and fine-grained temporal reasoning.

We propose the MAC-VO, a novel learning-based stereo VO that leverages the learned metrics-aware matching uncertainty for dual purposes: selecting keypoint and weighing the residual in pose graph optimization. Compared to traditional geometric methods prioritizing texture-affluent features like edges, our keypoint selector employs the learned uncertainty to filter out the low-quality features based on global inconsistency. In contrast to the learning-based algorithms that model the scale-agnostic diagonal weight matrix for covariance, we design a metrics-aware covariance model to capture the spatial error during keypoint registration and the correlations between different axes. Integrating this covariance model into pose graph optimization enhances the robustness and reliability of pose estimation, particularly in challenging environments with varying illumination, feature density, and motion patterns. On public benchmark datasets, MAC-VO outperforms existing VO algorithms and even some SLAM algorithms in challenging environments. The covariance map also provides valuable information about the reliability of the estimated poses, which can benefit decision-making for autonomous systems.

We present X-Actor, a novel audio-driven portrait animation framework that generates lifelike, emotionally expressive talking head videos from a single reference image and an input audio clip. Unlike prior methods that emphasize lip synchronization and short-range visual fidelity in constrained speaking scenarios, X-Actor enables actor-quality, long-form portrait performance capturing nuanced, dynamically evolving emotions that flow coherently with the rhythm and content of speech. Central to our approach is a two-stage decoupled generation pipeline: an audio-conditioned autoregressive diffusion model that predicts expressive yet identity-agnostic facial motion latent tokens within a long temporal context window, followed by a diffusion-based video synthesis module that translates these motions into high-fidelity video animations. By operating in a compact facial motion latent space decoupled from visual and identity cues, our autoregressive diffusion model effectively captures long-range correlations between audio and facial dynamics through a diffusion-forcing training paradigm, enabling infinite-length emotionally-rich motion prediction without error accumulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that X-Actor produces compelling, cinematic-style performances that go beyond standard talking head animations and achieves state-of-the-art results in long-range, audio-driven emotional portrait acting.

Quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes have a canonical mixed state---the normalized projector onto the code space---that lies at the intersection of quantum error correction and quantum many-body physics, yet the stability of its information-theoretic structure under local noise remains poorly understood. Recent progress on mixed-state phases of matter has identified the spatial decay of conditional mutual information (CMI) I(A:C|B) as a key diagnostic of such stability, analogous to the role of the spectral gap for quantum ground states. We prove that, for the normalized code-projector state of a Z_d qLDPC stabilizer code under local Pauli noise, the CMI across a buffer B separating A from C decays exponentially with the width of B in two complementary noise regimes independent of system size. At weak noise, this holds for full-system tripartitions, where correlations between the two sides require an error cluster to cross the buffer, an exponentially unlikely event. At strong noise, exponential decay holds whenever the buffer supports no logical operator, since correlations can persist only along rare chains of buffer qudits that remain informative. Under an additional space-uniformity assumption, we establish the robustness of Levin--Wen topological entropy. On finite-dimensional lattices of size n, the weak-noise bound further implies a constant-layer quasi-local Petz recovery channel of range O(poly(log n)/varepsilon) that recovers the noiseless state within trace-distance error varepsilon. Both CMI bounds apply to general qLDPC interaction graphs, including geometries where such constant-depth quasi-local recovery need not exist. Thus, the exponential decay of the noise-induced CMI provides a general criterion for mixed-state phase stability.

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world in autonomous systems and cyber-physical systems. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Different from most traditional fusion models that incorporate all modalities identically in neural networks, our model designates a prime modality and regards the remaining modalities as detectors in the information pathway, serving to distill the flow of information. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of multimodal representation learning. Experimental evaluations on the MUStARD, CMU-MOSI, and CMU-MOSEI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks. Remarkably, on the CMU-MOSI dataset, ITHP surpasses human-level performance in the multimodal sentiment binary classification task across all evaluation metrics (i.e., Binary Accuracy, F1 Score, Mean Absolute Error, and Pearson Correlation).

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

Software development effort estimation (SDEE) is one of the main tasks in software project management. It is crucial for a project manager to efficiently predict the effort or cost of a software project in a bidding process, since overestimation will lead to bidding loss and underestimation will cause the company to lose money. Several SDEE models exist; machine learning models, especially neural network models, are among the most prominent in the field. In this study, four different neural network models: Multilayer Perceptron, General Regression Neural Network, Radial Basis Function Neural Network, and Cascade Correlation Neural Network are compared with each other based on: (1) predictive accuracy centered on the Mean Absolute Error criterion, (2) whether such a model tends to overestimate or underestimate, and (3) how each model classifies the importance of its inputs. Industrial datasets from the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG) are used to train and validate the four models. The main ISBSG dataset was filtered and then divided into five datasets based on the productivity value of each project. Results show that the four models tend to overestimate in 80percent of the datasets, and the significance of the model inputs varies based on the selected model. Furthermore, the Cascade Correlation Neural Network outperforms the other three models in the majority of the datasets constructed on the Mean Absolute Residual criterion.

Recent advancements in Spatial Transcriptomics (ST) technology have facilitated detailed gene expression analysis within tissue contexts. However, the high costs and methodological limitations of ST necessitate a more robust predictive model. In response, this paper introduces TRIPLEX, a novel deep learning framework designed to predict spatial gene expression from Whole Slide Images (WSIs). TRIPLEX uniquely harnesses multi-resolution features, capturing cellular morphology at individual spots, the local context around these spots, and the global tissue organization. By integrating these features through an effective fusion strategy, TRIPLEX achieves accurate gene expression prediction. Our comprehensive benchmark study, conducted on three public ST datasets and supplemented with Visium data from 10X Genomics, demonstrates that TRIPLEX outperforms current state-of-the-art models in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The model's predictions align closely with ground truth gene expression profiles and tumor annotations, underscoring TRIPLEX's potential in advancing cancer diagnosis and treatment.

An avatar that holds a conversation should decide what to say and to move while saying it, yet these abilities live in separate model families: spoken dialogue models produce speech without motion, and co-speech motion models produce motion only from audio handed to them. The standard remedy is a cascade that first generates the spoken response and then runs a motion model over the finished audio, which requires a second full inference pass and precludes any joint optimisation between the two. We present Motion-Omni, an end-to-end framework in which a spoken dialogue model natively outputs explicit facial expression together with hand, upper-body and lower-body motion, generated directly from the hidden states that produce the speech. Joint training is not optional here: with the speech pathway frozen, motion remains misaligned with the audio, and co-adapting the LLM, Speech Generator and Motion Generator under both objectives is what recovers alignment while retaining spoken-dialogue ability. Supervision comes from a scalable, model-agnostic pipeline that pseudo-labels consistent-voice speech responses with a replaceable motion teacher, yielding 422,856 quality-ranked pairs (1,402 hours). We further release SwDA-500 and, to our knowledge, the first public evaluation protocol for stochastic open-ended full-body spoken dialogue, matching audio across motion systems while unifying rendering, automatic metrics, human evaluation, and latency measurement. Instantiated with a Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct backbone, Motion-Omni-Q7 matches the same-audio teacher cascade to within 2% on reference-free motion metrics while responding 5.4 x faster (RTF=0.78, faster than real time), surpasses all non-teacher cascades on beat correlation and diversity, and reaches a 2.62% word error rate, the lowest among the omni-modal systems compared.

Large audio language models (LALMs) have made substantial progress in audio understanding. However, in high-throughput applications requiring frequent selection, judgment, and scoring, autoregressive text generation introduces additional computational overhead and response latency. To address this limitation, we introduce Qwen-Audio-Jev by augmenting Qwen-Audio-3.1-ASR-Flash-Next with a dedicated Jev decision head. The model unifies selection, binary judgment, and scoring through three decision primitives: CHOICE, NOUL, and SCORE. Given audio, a natural-language question, and an explicit answer specification, it directly produces a task-conditioned probability distribution or a numerical score through typed decision readouts. Evaluation across 18 labeled configurations covers all three primitives: for CHOICE, Qwen-Audio-Jev achieves accuracies of 78.70% on MMAU-mini and 84.06% on MMSU; for NOUL, it achieves an equal error rate of 6.50% on the VoxCeleb1-O speaker verification benchmark; and for SCORE, the model achieves a normalized mean absolute error of 0.1062 on NISQA overall quality assessment, with Pearson and Spearman correlations of 0.8210 and 0.8074, respectively. Compared with the original Qwen-Audio-3.1-ASR-Flash-Next, Qwen-Audio-Jev achieves an approximately 20x inference speedup. It demonstrates its potential for efficient, high-throughput audio decision-making in applications such as large-scale audio screening, speaker verification, and automated quality assessment.

We present ORCA (Omni Research on Calculation in AI) Benchmark - a novel benchmark that evaluates large language models (LLMs) on multi-domain, real-life quantitative reasoning using verified outputs from Omni's calculator engine. In 500 natural-language tasks across domains such as finance, physics, health, and statistics, the five state-of-the-art systems (ChatGPT-5, Gemini~2.5~Flash, Claude~Sonnet~4.5, Grok~4, and DeepSeek~V3.2) achieved only 45--63,% accuracy, with errors mainly related to rounding (35,%) and calculation mistakes (33,%). Results in specific domains indicate strengths in mathematics and engineering, but weaknesses in physics and natural sciences. Correlation analysis (r approx 0.40--0.65) shows that the models often fail together but differ in the types of errors they make, highlighting their partial complementarity rather than redundancy. Unlike standard math datasets, ORCA evaluates step-by-step reasoning, numerical precision, and domain generalization across real problems from finance, physics, health, and statistics.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Models driven by spurious correlations often yield poor generalization performance. We propose the counterfactual (CF) alignment method to detect and quantify spurious correlations of black box classifiers. Our methodology is based on counterfactual images generated with respect to one classifier being input into other classifiers to see if they also induce changes in the outputs of these classifiers. The relationship between these responses can be quantified and used to identify specific instances where a spurious correlation exists. This is validated by observing intuitive trends in face-attribute and waterbird classifiers, as well as by fabricating spurious correlations and detecting their presence, both visually and quantitatively. Furthermore, utilizing the CF alignment method, we demonstrate that we can evaluate robust optimization methods (GroupDRO, JTT, and FLAC) by detecting a reduction in spurious correlations.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

Finetuning can cause spurious correlations to arise between non-essential features and the target labels, but benchmarks to study these effects involve contrived settings and narrow tasks. In contrast, we consider spurious correlations in multi-modal Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) pretrained on extensive and diverse datasets without explicit task supervision. We develop a benchmark by sourcing GPT-4o errors on real-world visual-question-answering (VQA) benchmarks, then curating a subset through LVLM-human annotation and synthetic counterfactual evaluation to identify errors caused by spurious correlations. This process yields SpuriVerse, a novel benchmark comprised of 124 distinct types of spurious correlations extracted from real-world datasets, each containing 1 realistic and 10 synthetic VQA samples for a total of 1364 multiple choice questions. We evaluate 15 open and closed-source LVLMs on SpuriVerse, finding that even state-of-the-art closed-source models struggle significantly, achieving at best only 37.1% accuracy. Fine-tuning on synthetic examples that emphasize the spurious correlation improves performance to 78.40%, suggesting that training on diverse spurious patterns generalizes to unseen situations: models appear to learn to avoid "shortcuts" and attend to the overall image context.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Ask a language model the same question about the same document twenty times, and it sometimes returns two different answers. We built Probity, a benchmark of 60 tasks and 470 items from real venture-financing filings, to measure how often this happens. Then we audited our own corpus and found a defect any excerpt-built benchmark can carry: items whose evidence is missing from the window of text the model is shown. The audit flags 36 items and separates two failures a single flag would conflate: evidence genuinely absent from the window and answers that must be computed from numbers the window does supply. Flagged items change their answers far more often, wobbling at 0.255 against 0.087 on the 427 clean items, and excluding them cuts apparent cross-model agreement by about a fifth. Before testing whether the missing evidence explains the instability, we registered a prediction: re-cut each window to hold its evidence, and instability should fall below a set threshold. It failed: the repair moved wobble by 0.058, with an interval containing zero. We report the association as correlational. Almost all measurements sit where instability cannot show, which bounds what a corpus built for accuracy can say about stability. We release the corpus, all 112,800 raw responses, and the audit as a runnable check for any document benchmark.

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Redundancies and correlations in the responses of sensory neurons seem to waste neural resources but can carry cues about structured stimuli and may help the brain to correct for response errors. To assess how the retina negotiates this tradeoff, we measured simultaneous responses from populations of ganglion cells presented with natural and artificial stimuli that varied greatly in correlation structure. We found that pairwise correlations in the retinal output remained similar across stimuli with widely different spatio-temporal correlations including white noise and natural movies. Meanwhile, purely spatial correlations tended to increase correlations in the retinal response. Responding to more correlated stimuli, ganglion cells had faster temporal kernels and tended to have stronger surrounds. These properties of individual cells, along with gain changes that opposed changes in effective contrast at the ganglion cell input, largely explained the similarity of pairwise correlations across stimuli where receptive field measurements were possible.

The "maximum similarity correlation" definition introduced in this study is motivated by the seminal work of Szekely et al on "distance covariance" (Ann. Statist. 2007, 35: 2769-2794; Ann. Appl. Stat. 2009, 3: 1236-1265). Instead of using Euclidean distances "d" as in Szekely et al, we use "similarity", which can be defined as "exp(-d/s)", where the scaling parameter s>0 controls how rapidly the similarity falls off with distance. Scale parameters are chosen by maximizing the similarity correlation. The motivation for using "similarity" originates in spectral clustering theory (see e.g. Ng et al 2001, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14: 849-856). We show that a particular form of similarity correlation is asymptotically equivalent to distance correlation for large values of the scale parameter. Furthermore, we extend similarity correlation to coherence between complex valued vectors, including its partitioning into real and imaginary contributions. Several toy examples are used for comparing distance and similarity correlations. For instance, points on a noiseless straight line give distance and similarity correlation values equal to 1; but points on a noiseless circle produces near zero distance correlation (dCorr=0.02) while the similarity correlation is distinctly non zero (sCorr=0.36). In distinction to the distance approach, similarity gives more importance to small distances, which emphasizes the local properties of functional relations. This paper represents a preliminary empirical study, showing that the novel similarity association has some distinct practical advantages over distance based association.For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing all methods here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including all test data, are freely available at: "sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/similaritycovariance".

Despite the rapid development of machine learning algorithms for domain generalization (DG), there is no clear empirical evidence that the existing DG algorithms outperform the classic empirical risk minimization (ERM) across standard benchmarks. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigate whether there are benefits of DG algorithms over ERM through the lens of label noise. Specifically, our finite-sample analysis reveals that label noise exacerbates the effect of spurious correlations for ERM, undermining generalization. Conversely, we illustrate that DG algorithms exhibit implicit label-noise robustness during finite-sample training even when spurious correlation is present. Such desirable property helps mitigate spurious correlations and improve generalization in synthetic experiments. However, additional comprehensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets indicate that label-noise robustness does not necessarily translate to better performance compared to ERM. We conjecture that the failure mode of ERM arising from spurious correlations may be less pronounced in practice.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

Discriminative approaches to classification often learn shortcuts that hold in-distribution but fail even under minor distribution shift. This failure mode stems from an overreliance on features that are spuriously correlated with the label. We show that generative classifiers, which use class-conditional generative models, can avoid this issue by modeling all features, both core and spurious, instead of mainly spurious ones. These generative classifiers are simple to train, avoiding the need for specialized augmentations, strong regularization, extra hyperparameters, or knowledge of the specific spurious correlations to avoid. We find that diffusion-based and autoregressive generative classifiers achieve state-of-the-art performance on five standard image and text distribution shift benchmarks and reduce the impact of spurious correlations in realistic applications, such as medical or satellite datasets. Finally, we carefully analyze a Gaussian toy setting to understand the inductive biases of generative classifiers, as well as the data properties that determine when generative classifiers outperform discriminative ones.

Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due to confounding (e.g., a common cause), but not direct or indirect causal effects. In this paper, we focus on natural language processing, introducing methods and resources for training models less sensitive to spurious patterns. Given documents and their initial labels, we task humans with revising each document so that it (i) accords with a counterfactual target label; (ii) retains internal coherence; and (iii) avoids unnecessary changes. Interestingly, on sentiment analysis and natural language inference tasks, classifiers trained on original data fail on their counterfactually-revised counterparts and vice versa. Classifiers trained on combined datasets perform remarkably well, just shy of those specialized to either domain. While classifiers trained on either original or manipulated data alone are sensitive to spurious features (e.g., mentions of genre), models trained on the combined data are less sensitive to this signal. Both datasets are publicly available.

The dominant industry response to AI-generated code quality problems is to deploy AI reviewers. This paper argues that this response is structurally circular when executable specifications are absent: without an external reference, both the generating agent and the reviewing agent reason from the same artefact, share the same training distribution, and exhibit correlated failures. The review checks code against itself, not against intent. Three hypotheses are developed. First, that correlated errors in homogeneous LLM pipelines echo rather than cancel, a claim supported by convergent empirical evidence from multiple 2025-2026 studies and by three small contrived experiments reported here. The first two experiments are same-family (Claude reviewing Claude-generated code); the third extends to a cross-family panel of four models from three families. All use a planted bug corpus rather than a natural defect sample; they are directional evidence, not a controlled demonstration. Second, that executable specifications perform a domain transition in the Cynefin sense, converting enabling constraints into governing constraints and moving the problem from the complex domain to the complicated domain, a transition that AI makes economically viable at scale. Third, that the defect classes lying outside the reach of executable specifications form a well-defined residual, which is the legitimate and bounded target for AI review. The combined argument implies an architecture: specifications first, deterministic verification pipeline second, AI review only for the structural and architectural residual. This is not a claim that AI review is valueless. It is a claim about what it is actually for, and about what happens when it is deployed without the foundation that makes it non-circular.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

Practitioners accept a compressed language model once it clears a stack of data-cheap quality guards: perplexity within a small factor of the original, downstream accuracy (for example MMLU) inside a confidence interval, and data-free output-fidelity signals that compare the compressed and original network's internal representations under random probe inputs. This stack has a blind spot. Across three model families, gently-compressed models clear every guard and then invent procedure steps that were never in the instructions when they run a standard operating procedure (SOP) as an agent. The effect is operator-specific: coherent low-rank (SVD) truncation induces it, and magnitude pruning matched to the same perplexity does not. One dissociation isolates the cause. The same compressed weights that CI-win a paired output-fidelity test CI-fail the invented-step canary. The governing axis is the coherence of the compression error times its rate; the magnitude of the damage does not predict it. The data-free fidelity probe is a fidelity oracle by construction, so it cannot see this axis. We characterize the blindspot and dissociation with paired confidence intervals on a pre-registered, powered canary across three architectures. Operator-specificity replicates on all three, and the perplexity-guard evasion appears where the model admits in-guard low-rank headroom. We then give a data-free screen: a two-axis statistic of the compression error (coherent-fraction and error-rate) that flags the failing builds with fixed thresholds across architectures and matches the coherence-times-rate mechanism. Perplexity, MMLU, and fidelity acceptance do not certify agent safety. Screen gently-compressed low-rank builds before agentic deployment

Majority voting over multiple LLM attempts improves mathematical reasoning, but correlated errors limit the effective sample size. A natural fix is to assign different reasoning strategies to different voters. The approach, Diverse Prompt Mixer, is tested on the AIMO 3 competition: 3 models, 23+ experiments, 50 IMO-level problems, one H100 80 GB, 5-hour limit. Every prompt-level intervention fails. High-temperature sampling already decorrelates errors; weaker strategies reduce accuracy more than they reduce correlation. Across an 8-point capability gap at equal N=8 and every optimization tested, model capability dominates. The gap between the best majority-vote score (42/50) and pass@20 (~45.5) is selection loss, not prompt loss. A verifier-based selector could close it. Prompt engineering cannot.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

We systematically study antithetic initial noise in diffusion models, discovering that pairing each noise sample with its negation consistently produces strong negative correlation. This universal phenomenon holds across datasets, model architectures, conditional and unconditional sampling, and even other generative models such as VAEs and Normalizing Flows. To explain it, we combine experiments and theory and propose a symmetry conjecture that the learned score function is approximately affine antisymmetric (odd symmetry up to a constant shift), supported by empirical evidence. This negative correlation leads to substantially more reliable uncertainty quantification with up to 90% narrower confidence intervals. We demonstrate these gains on tasks including estimating pixel-wise statistics and evaluating diffusion inverse solvers. We also provide extensions with randomized quasi-Monte Carlo noise designs for uncertainty quantification, and explore additional applications of the antithetic noise design to improve image editing and generation diversity. Our framework is training-free, model-agnostic, and adds no runtime overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/jjia131/Antithetic-Noise-in-Diffusion-Models-page.

As with many other problems, real-world regression is plagued by the presence of noisy labels, an inevitable issue that demands our attention. Fortunately, much real-world data often exhibits an intrinsic property of continuously ordered correlations between labels and features, where data points with similar labels are also represented with closely related features. In response, we propose a novel approach named ConFrag, where we collectively model the regression data by transforming them into disjoint yet contrasting fragmentation pairs. This enables the training of more distinctive representations, enhancing the ability to select clean samples. Our ConFrag framework leverages a mixture of neighboring fragments to discern noisy labels through neighborhood agreement among expert feature extractors. We extensively perform experiments on six newly curated benchmark datasets of diverse domains, including age prediction, price prediction, and music production year estimation. We also introduce a metric called Error Residual Ratio (ERR) to better account for varying degrees of label noise. Our approach consistently outperforms fourteen state-of-the-art baselines, being robust against symmetric and random Gaussian label noise.

We consider the task of mapping pseudocode to long programs that are functionally correct. Given test cases as a mechanism to validate programs, we search over the space of possible translations of the pseudocode to find a program that passes the validation. However, without proper credit assignment to localize the sources of program failures, it is difficult to guide search toward more promising programs. We propose to perform credit assignment based on signals from compilation errors, which constitute 88.7% of program failures. Concretely, we treat the translation of each pseudocode line as a discrete portion of the program, and whenever a synthesized program fails to compile, an error localization method tries to identify the portion of the program responsible for the failure. We then focus search over alternative translations of the pseudocode for those portions. For evaluation, we collected the SPoC dataset (Search-based Pseudocode to Code) containing 18,356 programs with human-authored pseudocode and test cases. Under a budget of 100 program compilations, performing search improves the synthesis success rate over using the top-one translation of the pseudocode from 25.6% to 44.7%.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

The robustness of machine learning models can be compromised by spurious correlations between non-causal features in the input data and target labels. A common way to test for such correlations is to train on data where the label is strongly tied to some non-causal cue, then evaluate on examples where that tie no longer holds. This idea is well established for classification tasks, but for semantic segmentation the specific failure modes are not well understood. We show that a model may achieve reasonable overlap while assigning the wrong semantic label, swapping one plausible foreground class for another, even when object boundaries are largely correct. We focus on this semantic label-flip behaviour and quantify it with a simple diagnostic (Flip) that counts how often ground truth foreground pixels are assigned the wrong foreground identity while remaining predicted as foreground. In a setting where category and scene are correlated during training, increasing the correlation consistently widens the gap between common and rare test conditions and increases these within-object label swaps on counterfactual groups. Overall, our results motivate assessing segmentation robustness under distribution shift beyond overlap by decomposing foreground errors into correct pixels, flipped-identity pixels, and missed-to-background pixels. We also propose an entropy-based, ground truth label-free `flip-risk' score, which is computed from foreground identity uncertainty, and show that it can flag flip-prone cases at inference time. Code is available at https://github.com/acharaakshit/label-flips.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

Why do language models sometimes prefer correct statements even when trained on mixed-quality data? We introduce the Compression--Consistency Principle: next-token prediction favors hypotheses that allow shorter and more internally consistent descriptions of the training data. Truth bias emerges only when false alternatives are structurally harder to compress. We test this using small GPT-2-style character-level transformers (3.5M--86M parameters) on synthetic math corpora with controlled mixtures of correct and incorrect rules. In the random-error setting, models strongly prefer correct completions in paired evaluation: 83.1% accuracy at balanced data and 67.0% even when correct rules appear in only 10% of the corpus. Replacing random errors with a coherent but mathematically incorrect rule system largely eliminates the preference (near-chance accuracy). In a more natural-language-like synthetic world, the effect is weaker but still present (57.7%). Additional experiments show that embedding verification steps can restore preference for correctness even at small scale, while increasing the number of consistent rules produces a graded improvement in accuracy. Our results suggest that what appears as a "truth bias" is largely a side effect of compression pressure and preference for internal consistency, rather than an intrinsic drive toward truth. Full code and data are available at https://github.com/Rai220/compression-drives-truth.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

Quantum error correction provides a path to reach practical quantum computing by combining multiple physical qubits into a logical qubit, where the logical error rate is suppressed exponentially as more qubits are added. However, this exponential suppression only occurs if the physical error rate is below a critical threshold. In this work, we present two surface code memories operating below this threshold: a distance-7 code and a distance-5 code integrated with a real-time decoder. The logical error rate of our larger quantum memory is suppressed by a factor of Λ = 2.14 pm 0.02 when increasing the code distance by two, culminating in a 101-qubit distance-7 code with 0.143% pm 0.003% error per cycle of error correction. This logical memory is also beyond break-even, exceeding its best physical qubit's lifetime by a factor of 2.4 pm 0.3. We maintain below-threshold performance when decoding in real time, achieving an average decoder latency of 63 μs at distance-5 up to a million cycles, with a cycle time of 1.1 μs. To probe the limits of our error-correction performance, we run repetition codes up to distance-29 and find that logical performance is limited by rare correlated error events occurring approximately once every hour, or 3 times 10^9 cycles. Our results present device performance that, if scaled, could realize the operational requirements of large scale fault-tolerant quantum algorithms.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.