Daily Papers

Encrypted traffic classifiers are routinely reported at 95-99% accuracy. We show that on one of two public corpora, the same model and code score macro-F1 0.992 under the evaluation protocol standard in the literature and 0.567 under a protocol that keeps flows from one packet capture on one side of the split. Nothing changes but the partition (gap 0.426 over eight seeds, p = 0.008 after Holm-Bonferroni correction). The inflation is not a property of random splitting as such. On a month of backbone QUIC traffic, we evaluate five split protocols at eight seeds each: random, temporal and client-disjoint splitting are statistically indistinguishable from session-disjoint, while server-disjoint splitting costs 0.192 macro-F1 (d = 17.0, p = 0.008). Which axis matters depends on how the corpus was collected, in a way invisible from its label space. We give a diagnostic that identifies the right axis before any model is trained: single-identifier probes. A decision tree on the capture identifier alone reaches 0.983 under a random split and exactly 0.000 under session-disjoint splitting. Under this evaluation, a metric-trained flow embedding leads four deep baselines but does not beat gradient-boosted trees on twenty packet sizes. Five of our own pre-registered architectural claims fail: distance-based rejection of unknown applications beats softmax thresholding, but ablating every metric objective makes rejection better, because class separation correlates at r = -0.88 with rejection quality. Few-shot enrollment is flat within a corpus but, across corpora, five labelled flows per class recover 91% of the deficit left by failed zero-shot transfer. All splits, results, code and negative findings are released.

Materials property prediction models are usually evaluated using random splitting of datasets into training and test datasets, which not only leads to over-estimated performance due to inherent redundancy, typically existent in material datasets, but also deviate away from the common practice of materials scientists: they are usually interested in predicting properties for a known subset of related out-of-distribution (OOD) materials rather than a universally distributed samples. Feeding such target material formulas/structures to the machine learning models should improve the prediction performance while most current machine learning (ML) models neglect this information. Here we propose to use domain adaptation (DA) to enhance current ML models for property prediction and evaluate their performance improvements in a set of five realistic application scenarios. Our systematic benchmark studies show that there exist DA models that can significantly improve the OOD test set prediction performance while standard ML models and most of the other DAs cannot improve or even deteriorate the performance. Our benchmark datasets and DA code can be freely accessed at https://github.com/Little-Cheryl/MatDA.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) employs Gaussian primitives for explicit scene representation, facilitating real-time, high-fidelity reconstruction and novel view synthesis of complex scenes. However, the explicit modeling inherent in 3DGS introduces a gradient bias during optimization, rendering its non-convex optimization process highly susceptible to convergence toward local suboptimal solutions. This constitutes a fundamental limitation in 3DGS optimization, which we term the Blur Trap. To address this limitation, we integrate simple explicit exploration into the 3DGS optimization framework. First, through rigorous mathematical analysis of the 3DGS optimization formulation, we identify the underlying optimization bias responsible for the Blur Trap and categorize it into two distinct subtypes: the Far-Side Blur Trap and the Near-Side Blur Trap. Subsequently, we propose two highly straightforward exploration strategies (Random Seeding and Random Splitting) to mitigate the far-side and near-side blur traps, respectively. Experimental validation demonstrates that the incorporation of these exploration operators effectively and complementarily overcome the Blur Trap, achieving high-quality rendering performance across multiple datasets. Project page: https://chengbo-wang.github.io/ExploreGS/

A large-scale dataset is essential for training a well-generalized deep-learning model. Most such datasets are collected via scraping from various internet sources, inevitably introducing duplicated data. In the symbolic music domain, these duplicates often come from multiple user arrangements and metadata changes after simple editing. However, despite critical issues such as unreliable training evaluation from data leakage during random splitting, dataset duplication has not been extensively addressed in the MIR community. This study investigates the dataset duplication issues regarding Lakh MIDI Dataset (LMD), one of the largest publicly available sources in the symbolic music domain. To find and evaluate the best retrieval method for duplicated data, we employed the Clean MIDI subset of the LMD as a benchmark test set, in which different versions of the same songs are grouped together. We first evaluated rule-based approaches and previous symbolic music retrieval models for de-duplication and also investigated with a contrastive learning-based BERT model with various augmentations to find duplicate files. As a result, we propose three different versions of the filtered list of LMD, which filters out at least 38,134 samples in the most conservative settings among 178,561 files.

The scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) has driven significant performance gains but created substantial challenges in inference efficiency. While Mixture of Experts (MoEs) architectures address this by decoupling model size from inference cost, training MoEs from scratch is often unstable and compute intensive. Conversion of pre-trained dense models into sparse MoEs has emerged as an alternative solution; however, existing methods typically rely on heuristic neuron clustering or random splitting to partition the Feed-Forward Network (FFN) into experts. In this work, we propose DOT-MoE, a novel framework that formulates the decomposition of dense layers as a Differentiable Optimal Transport (DOT) problem. Instead of static heuristics, we model neuron assignment as a balanced transport problem, utilizing differentiable Sinkhorn-Knopp iterations to enforce strict expert capacity constraints. Furthermore, we utilize Straight-Through Estimators (STE) to jointly learn the discrete neuron-to-expert assignment and the token-to-expert routing policy end-to-end. Extensive experiments across multiple architectures and benchmarks demonstrate that DOT-MoE significantly outperforms structured pruning, heuristic clustering, and random-split baselines, retaining 90% of the original dense model's performance while reducing active parameters by 50%.

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) databases do not faithfully reflect biological realities. Instead, they are influenced by study and technical biases that distort certain protein and interaction attributes. Machine learning models can exploit these as learning shortcuts if the negative dataset is not constructed with care. So far, the shortcuts introduced during PPI dataset construction have only been examined in isolation. Here, we systematically characterize both reported and, to our knowledge, previously unreported biases in PPI datasets that lead machine learning models to learn shortcuts instead of biological signal. We analyze HIPPIE, IntAct, and STRING, dedicated PPI databases, as well as two datasets derived from 3D-structural information in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). We show that random data splitting introduces strong topological shortcuts. When train-test protein overlap is removed, the resulting datasets still retain usable shortcuts stemming from self-interactions, taxonomic identity, and functional relatedness, whose prevalence interestingly depends on the data source. We further show that sampling negatives from a set of high-confidence non-interactors, an intuitively appealing choice, can amplify the shortcut stemming from functional relatedness. To detect and mitigate these biases, we provide an open Nextflow pipeline that combines similarity-aware, data-loss-minimizing dataset splitting with bias-minimizing negative sampling, both formulated as integer linear programs. Its key concept of quantifying biases to minimize them through optimization-based negative sampling can, in principle, be extended to any machine learning problem where the pool of negative candidates is much larger than the positives and is thus of interest also beyond PPI prediction.

Frontier language models can resolve repository-level software issues, but each attempt is expensive, and existing routers select a model from the issue text alone. We present SuperScout, which routes after scouting the repository: a 7B searcher, SuperScout-7B, first explores the repository and produces a structured handoff whose reproduction claims are sandbox-verified, with false claims stripped before delivery. The searcher's hidden states, together with the task text, then feed a resume-based router that dispatches the task to one of four frontier fixers. Adding a new fixer requires no retraining. On the full Python slice of SWE-bench Pro (266 tasks) under the benchmark's official capped budget tier, SuperScout matches the best single model's solve rate (159 of 266 for SuperScout, 158 for the best model) at about a fifth of the total cost per solve, and the reported configuration sits above the random traffic-splitting baseline. A no-router ablation, always the cheapest fixer with the handoff, ties the routed system on this benchmark, so the handoff rather than the routing decision carries the result. A paired calibration study points to the mechanism: the handoff appears to redistribute rather than add solving ability, lifting the three cheaper fixers while slightly hurting the strongest, though at N=99 the per-fixer effects are directional only; the searcher's hidden states improve cost routing on the calibration labels while the handoff's own text does not. The searcher's compute adds less than half a cent of GPU time per task.

Single-cell perturbation screens are used to train and evaluate models that predict perturbation effects, and model scores are judged against how reproducible the measured effects are. Reproducibility is usually judged by splitting each perturbation's cells into two random halves. This assumes that the halves are independent replicates. In pooled screens such as Perturb-seq, however, the cells carrying a guide RNA descend from a limited number of transduced cells, so two random halves contain the same clones: pseudoreplication whose unit is not marked in the data. Using perturbations that should have no effect as controls, we compared random halves with independent replicates from separate transductions, and tested directly with halves that differ only in their clones. In a genome-scale screen of primary T cells, null perturbations agreed between random halves almost always and between independent replicates only half the time, the rate expected from noise alone; measuring more cells did not remove this agreement. Splitting the cells into halves that share no clone, by the T-cell receptor constant region or by a clone barcode, largely removed the excess agreement. Its size equals the share of expression differences set by clones divided by the effective number of clones per perturbation; across 16 screens it was largest in T cells transferred into mice and in a genome-scale primary T-cell screen, one to two orders of magnitude smaller in cell lines, and smallest in non-dividing neurons. Shared clones inflate benchmark ceilings and reliability labels, and when a model's input and its scoring answer come from one transduction, published models that predict perturbation effects in a new cell state appear better than a baseline that ignores the perturbation; against cells from another transduction, most fall below it. Reproducibility should be judged across separate transductions.

With local differential privacy (LDP), users can privatize their data and thus guarantee privacy properties before transmitting it to the server (a.k.a. the aggregator). One primary objective of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of users for each possible value. In practice, when a study with rich content on a population is desired, the interest is in the multiple attributes of the population, that is to say, in multidimensional data (d geq 2). However, contrary to the problem of frequency estimation of a single attribute (the majority of the works), the multidimensional aspect imposes to pay particular attention to the privacy budget. This one can indeed grow extremely quickly due to the composition theorem. To the authors' knowledge, two solutions seem to stand out for this task: 1) splitting the privacy budget for each attribute, i.e., send each value with fracε{d}-LDP (Spl), and 2) random sampling a single attribute and spend all the privacy budget to send it with ε-LDP (Smp). Although Smp adds additional sampling error, it has proven to provide higher data utility than the former Spl solution. However, we argue that aggregators (who are also seen as attackers) are aware of the sampled attribute and its LDP value, which is protected by a "less strict" e^ε probability bound (rather than e^{ε/d}). This way, we propose a solution named Random Sampling plus Fake Data (RS+FD), which allows creating uncertainty over the sampled attribute by generating fake data for each non-sampled attribute; RS+FD further benefits from amplification by sampling. We theoretically and experimentally validate our proposed solution on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that RS+FD achieves nearly the same or better utility than the state-of-the-art Smp solution.

Decision tree-based models are widely used in machine learning due to their interpretability and strong empirical performance. However, training decision trees can be computationally expensive, particularly for large and high-dimensional datasets, largely due to the exhaustive search over candidate splits at each node. To improve computational efficiency, we propose Data-Informed Centroid Splitting (DICS), a clustering-based framework that constructs a compact and informative set of candidate splits using data-driven priors. By incorporating class-aware structure, DICS significantly reduces the split search space for classification tasks while preserving predictive performance. We further provide theoretical analysis showing that under the stated assumptions, DICS does not degrade the performance of classification trees compared to exhaustive split search. DICS can be incorporated into classification trees, random forests, and gradient-boosting models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DICS achieves comparable accuracy while substantially reducing training time across synthetic and benchmark datasets, highlighting the benefit of integrating data-informed priors into split selection for scalable classification tree learning.

Although 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated promising results in novel view synthesis, its performance degrades dramatically with sparse inputs and generates undesirable artifacts. As the number of training views decreases, the novel view synthesis task degrades to a highly under-determined problem such that existing methods suffer from the notorious overfitting issue. Interestingly, we observe that models with fewer Gaussian primitives exhibit less overfitting under sparse inputs. Inspired by this observation, we propose a Random Dropout Regularization (RDR) to exploit the advantages of low-complexity models to alleviate overfitting. In addition, to remedy the lack of high-frequency details for these models, an Edge-guided Splitting Strategy (ESS) is developed. With these two techniques, our method (termed DropoutGS) provides a simple yet effective plug-in approach to improve the generalization performance of existing 3DGS methods. Extensive experiments show that our DropoutGS produces state-of-the-art performance under sparse views on benchmark datasets including Blender, LLFF, and DTU. The project page is at: https://xuyx55.github.io/DropoutGS/.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Network pruning is a method for reducing test-time computational resource requirements with minimal performance degradation. Conventional wisdom of pruning algorithms suggests that: (1) Pruning methods exploit information from training data to find good subnetworks; (2) The architecture of the pruned network is crucial for good performance. In this paper, we conduct sanity checks for the above beliefs on several recent unstructured pruning methods and surprisingly find that: (1) A set of methods which aims to find good subnetworks of the randomly-initialized network (which we call "initial tickets"), hardly exploits any information from the training data; (2) For the pruned networks obtained by these methods, randomly changing the preserved weights in each layer, while keeping the total number of preserved weights unchanged per layer, does not affect the final performance. These findings inspire us to choose a series of simple data-independent prune ratios for each layer, and randomly prune each layer accordingly to get a subnetwork (which we call "random tickets"). Experimental results show that our zero-shot random tickets outperform or attain a similar performance compared to existing "initial tickets". In addition, we identify one existing pruning method that passes our sanity checks. We hybridize the ratios in our random ticket with this method and propose a new method called "hybrid tickets", which achieves further improvement. (Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/JingtongSu/sanity-checking-pruning)

Annotating the dataset with high-quality labels is crucial for performance of deep network, but in real world scenarios, the labels are often contaminated by noise. To address this, some methods were proposed to automatically split clean and noisy labels, and learn a semi-supervised learner in a Learning with Noisy Labels (LNL) framework. However, they leverage a handcrafted module for clean-noisy label splitting, which induces a confirmation bias in the semi-supervised learning phase and limits the performance. In this paper, we for the first time present a learnable module for clean-noisy label splitting, dubbed SplitNet, and a novel LNL framework which complementarily trains the SplitNet and main network for the LNL task. We propose to use a dynamic threshold based on a split confidence by SplitNet to better optimize semi-supervised learner. To enhance SplitNet training, we also present a risk hedging method. Our proposed method performs at a state-of-the-art level especially in high noise ratio settings on various LNL benchmarks.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

Let B_t(n) be the number of set partitions of a set of size~t into at most n parts and let B'_t(n) be the number of set partitions of {1,ldots, t} into at most n parts such that no part contains both 1 and~t or both i and i+1 for any i in {1,ldots,t-1}. We give two new combinatorial interpretations of the numbers B_t(n) and B'_t(n) using sequences of random-to-top shuffles, %that leave a deck of cards invariant, and sequences of box moves on the Young diagrams of partitions. Using these ideas we obtain a very short proof of a generalization of a result of Phatarfod on the eigenvalues of the random-to-top shuffle. We also prove analogous results for random-to-top shuffles that may flip certain cards. The proofs use the Solomon descent algebras of Types A, B and~D. We give generating functions and asymptotic results for all the combinatorial quantities studied in this paper.

The Omega numbers-the halting probabilities of universal prefix-free machines-are known to be exactly the Martin-L{\"o}f random left-c.e. reals. We show that one cannot uniformly produce, from a Martin-L{\"o}f random left-c.e. real alpha, a universal prefix-free machine U whose halting probability is alpha. We also answer a question of Barmpalias and Lewis-Pye by showing that given a left-c.e. real alpha, one cannot uniformly produce a left-c.e. real beta such that alpha -- beta is neither left-c.e. nor right-c.e.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Methods for carefully selecting or generating a small set of training data to learn from, i.e., data pruning, coreset selection, and data distillation, have been shown to be effective in reducing the ever-increasing cost of training neural networks. Behind this success are rigorously designed strategies for identifying informative training examples out of large datasets. However, these strategies come with additional computational costs associated with subset selection or data distillation before training begins, and furthermore, many are shown to even under-perform random sampling in high data compression regimes. As such, many data pruning, coreset selection, or distillation methods may not reduce 'time-to-accuracy', which has become a critical efficiency measure of training deep neural networks over large datasets. In this work, we revisit a powerful yet overlooked random sampling strategy to address these challenges and introduce an approach called Repeated Sampling of Random Subsets (RSRS or RS2), where we randomly sample the subset of training data for each epoch of model training. We test RS2 against thirty state-of-the-art data pruning and data distillation methods across four datasets including ImageNet. Our results demonstrate that RS2 significantly reduces time-to-accuracy compared to existing techniques. For example, when training on ImageNet in the high-compression regime (using less than 10% of the dataset each epoch), RS2 yields accuracy improvements up to 29% compared to competing pruning methods while offering a runtime reduction of 7x. Beyond the above meta-study, we provide a convergence analysis for RS2 and discuss its generalization capability. The primary goal of our work is to establish RS2 as a competitive baseline for future data selection or distillation techniques aimed at efficient training.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved near-human performance across diverse reasoning tasks, yet their deployment on resource-constrained Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices remains impractical due to massive parameter footprints and memory-intensive autoregressive decoding. While split computing offers a promising solution by partitioning model execution between edge devices and cloud servers, existing approaches fail to address the unique challenges of autoregressive inference, particularly the iterative token generation process and expanding key-value (KV) cache requirements. This work introduces the first autoregressive-aware split computing framework designed explicitly for LLM deployment on edge devices. Our approach makes three key contributions. First, we develop one-point split compression (OPSC), a mixed-precision quantization scheme that prevents out-of-memory failures by strategically partitioning models into front-end and back-end segments with different precision levels. Second, we propose a two-stage intermediate compression pipeline that combines threshold splitting (TS) and token-wise adaptive bit quantization (TAB-Q) to preserve accuracy-critical activations while dramatically reducing communication overhead. Third, we formulate a unified optimization framework that jointly selects optimal split points, quantization settings, and sequence lengths to satisfy strict memory and latency constraints. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLMs and hardware platforms demonstrate superior performance compared to state-of-the-art quantization methods, including SmoothQuant, OmniQuant, and Atom. The framework achieves a 1.49 inference speedup and significant communication overhead reduction while maintaining or improving model accuracy.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Recent innovations in generative large language models (LLMs) have made their applications and use-cases ubiquitous. This has led to large-scale deployments of these models, using complex, expensive, and power-hungry AI accelerators, most commonly GPUs. These developments make LLM inference efficiency an important challenge. Based on our extensive characterization, we find that there are two main phases during an LLM inference request: a compute-intensive prompt computation, and a memory-intensive token generation, each with distinct latency, throughput, memory, and power characteristics. Despite state-of-the-art batching and scheduling, the token generation phase underutilizes compute resources. Specifically, unlike compute-intensive prompt computation phases, token generation phases do not require the compute capability of the latest GPUs, and can be run with lower power and cost. With Splitwise, we propose splitting the two phases of a LLM inference request on to separate machines. This allows us to use hardware that is well-suited for each phase, and provision resources independently per phase. However, splitting an inference request across machines requires state transfer from the machine running prompt computation over to the machine generating tokens. We implement and optimize this state transfer using the fast back-plane interconnects available in today's GPU clusters. We use the Splitwise technique to design LLM inference clusters using the same or different types of machines for the prompt computation and token generation phases. Our clusters are optimized for three key objectives: throughput, cost, and power. In particular, we show that we can achieve 1.4x higher throughput at 20% lower cost than current designs. Alternatively, we can achieve 2.35x more throughput with the same cost and power budgets.

Proportionality is an attractive fairness concept that has been applied to a range of problems including the facility location problem, a classic problem in social choice. In our work, we propose a concept called Strong Proportionality, which ensures that when there are two groups of agents at different locations, both groups incur the same total cost. We show that although Strong Proportionality is a well-motivated and basic axiom, there is no deterministic strategyproof mechanism satisfying the property. We then identify a randomized mechanism called Random Rank (which uniformly selects a number k between 1 to n and locates the facility at the k'th highest agent location) which satisfies Strong Proportionality in expectation. Our main theorem characterizes Random Rank as the unique mechanism that achieves universal truthfulness, universal anonymity, and Strong Proportionality in expectation among all randomized mechanisms. Finally, we show via the AverageOrRandomRank mechanism that even stronger ex-post fairness guarantees can be achieved by weakening universal truthfulness to strategyproofness in expectation.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

In this work, a method of random parameters generation for randomized learning of a single-hidden-layer feedforward neural network is proposed. The method firstly, randomly selects the slope angles of the hidden neurons activation functions from an interval adjusted to the target function, then randomly rotates the activation functions, and finally distributes them across the input space. For complex target functions the proposed method gives better results than the approach commonly used in practice, where the random parameters are selected from the fixed interval. This is because it introduces the steepest fragments of the activation functions into the input hypercube, avoiding their saturation fragments.

Randomized mechanisms can have good normative properties compared to their deterministic counterparts. However, randomized mechanisms are problematic in several ways such as in their verifiability. We propose here to derandomize such mechanisms by having agents play a game instead of tossing a coin. The game is designed so an agent's best action is to play randomly, and this play then injects ``randomness'' into the mechanism. This derandomization retains many of the good normative properties of the original randomized mechanism but gives a mechanism that is deterministic and easy, for instance, to audit. We consider three related methods to derandomize randomized mechanism in six different domains: voting, facility location, task allocation, school choice, peer selection, and resource allocation. We propose a number of novel derandomized mechanisms for these six domains with good normative properties. Each mechanism has a mixed Nash equilibrium in which agents play a modular arithmetic game with an uniform mixed strategy. In all but one mixed Nash equilibrium, agents report their preferences over the original problem sincerely. The derandomized methods are thus ``quasi-strategy proof''. In one domain, we additionally show that a new and desirable normative property emerges as a result of derandomization.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Recent prompt optimisation approaches use the generative nature of language models to produce prompts -- even rivaling the performance of human-curated prompts. In this paper, we demonstrate that randomly sampling tokens from the model vocabulary as ``separators'' can be as effective as language models for prompt-style text classification. Our experiments show that random separators are competitive baselines, having less than a 1% difference compared to previous self-optimisation methods and showing a 12% average relative improvement over strong human baselines across nine text classification tasks and eight language models. We further analyse this phenomenon in detail using three different random generation strategies, establishing that the language space is rich with potentially good separators, with a greater than 40% average chance that a randomly drawn separator performs better than human-curated separators. These observations challenge the common assumption that an effective prompt should be human readable or task relevant and establish a strong baseline for prompt optimisation research.

Randomly initialized dense networks contain subnetworks that achieve high accuracy without weight learning--strong lottery tickets (SLTs). Recently, Gadhikar et al. (2023) demonstrated that SLTs could also be found within a randomly pruned source network. This phenomenon can be exploited to further compress the small memory size required by SLTs. However, their method is limited to SLTs that are even sparser than the source, leading to worse accuracy due to unintentionally high sparsity. This paper proposes a method for reducing the SLT memory size without restricting the sparsity of the SLTs that can be found. A random subset of the initial weights is frozen by either permanently pruning them or locking them as a fixed part of the SLT, resulting in a smaller model size. Experimental results show that Edge-Popup (Ramanujan et al., 2020; Sreenivasan et al., 2022) finds SLTs with better accuracy-to-model size trade-off within frozen networks than within dense or randomly pruned source networks. In particular, freezing 70% of a ResNet on ImageNet provides 3.3 times compression compared to the SLT found within a dense counterpart, raises accuracy by up to 14.12 points compared to the SLT found within a randomly pruned counterpart, and offers a better accuracy-model size trade-off than both.

Standard continuous-time generative models rely on monolithic architectures that must navigate vastly different signal regimes, from isotropic noise to intricate data distributions. While scaling model capacity improves performance, deploying a massive network uniformly across the entire generative timeline is inherently inefficient. In this work, we propose Complexity-Balanced Splitting (CBS), a principled framework for temporal capacity allocation that distributes the generative workload across multiple specialized sub-networks. Grounded in function approximation theory and de Boor's equidistribution principle, CBS partitions the diffusion timeline into segments of equal approximation burden, allocating more representational capacity to regions where the generative dynamics are more difficult to model. To estimate this local complexity, we introduce two complementary and tractable monitor functions: a spatial measure based on the flow's Dirichlet energy, and a geometric measure based on the acceleration of the sampling trajectories. Using a lightweight auxiliary model to estimate these complexity profiles, our approach eliminates the need for heuristic temporal splits or computationally expensive search procedures. Extensive evaluation across multiple architectures (SiT, JiT, and UNet) and datasets demonstrates that CBS consistently improves synthesis quality without increasing per-step inference cost. In particular, CBS improves FID by ~35% on SiT-XL with CFG relative to naive temporal partitioning. Project page is available at https://noamissachar.github.io/CBS/.

Data pruning algorithms are commonly used to reduce the memory and computational cost of the optimization process. Recent empirical results reveal that random data pruning remains a strong baseline and outperforms most existing data pruning methods in the high compression regime, i.e., where a fraction of 30% or less of the data is kept. This regime has recently attracted a lot of interest as a result of the role of data pruning in improving the so-called neural scaling laws; in [Sorscher et al.], the authors showed the need for high-quality data pruning algorithms in order to beat the sample power law. In this work, we focus on score-based data pruning algorithms and show theoretically and empirically why such algorithms fail in the high compression regime. We demonstrate ``No Free Lunch" theorems for data pruning and present calibration protocols that enhance the performance of existing pruning algorithms in this high compression regime using randomization.

Network pruning techniques, including weight pruning and filter pruning, reveal that most state-of-the-art neural networks can be accelerated without a significant performance drop. This work focuses on filter pruning which enables accelerated inference with any off-the-shelf deep learning library and hardware. We propose the concept of network pruning spaces that parametrize populations of subnetwork architectures. Based on this concept, we explore the structure aspect of subnetworks that result in minimal loss of accuracy in different pruning regimes and arrive at a series of observations by comparing subnetwork distributions. We conjecture through empirical studies that there exists an optimal FLOPs-to-parameter-bucket ratio related to the design of original network in a pruning regime. Statistically, the structure of a winning subnetwork guarantees an approximately optimal ratio in this regime. Upon our conjectures, we further refine the initial pruning space to reduce the cost of searching a good subnetwork architecture. Our experimental results on ImageNet show that the subnetwork we found is superior to those from the state-of-the-art pruning methods under comparable FLOPs.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.

We propose an abstract framework to establish the convergence of the iterates of stochastic versions of a broad range of monotone operator splitting methods in Hilbert spaces. This framework allows for the introduction of stochasticity at several levels: approximation of operators, selection of coordinates and operators in block-iterative implementations, and relaxation parameters. The proposed analysis involves a reduced inclusion model with two operators. At each iteration, stochastic approximations to points in the graphs of these two operators are used to form the update. The results are applied to derive the almost sure and L^2 convergence of stochastic versions of the proximal point algorithm, as well as of randomized block-iterative projective splitting methods for solving systems of coupled inclusions involving a mix of set-valued, cocoercive, and Lipschitzian monotone operators combined via various monotonicity-preserving operations.

A selector that allocates work across opaque components must evaluate them without being told how they performed. We study the least communication that suffices. Each parent maintains an allocation vector over its children and updates it from outcomes by proportional redistribution. Each child reads the sign of its own allocation change, one bit per round it is selected, so no evaluation message crosses the parent-child boundary. (1) The update preserves the simplex with strict positivity. (2) Conditional on being selected, a child's sign is exactly the root outcome at every depth, a sufficient statistic. The conditioning is necessary. (3) Under interiority a single selector has a unique interior equilibrium, exact and closed-form for N=2, with almost sure convergence under decreasing steps. For general N an equi-ratio condition gives an explicit affine equilibrium. (4) The linearised mean flow has real, strictly negative tangent eigenvalues with explicit bounds for all N >= 2. (5) The mean flow converges globally. An explicit potential, up to normalisation the KL divergence between the failure and slack distributions, decreases at a rate equal to the variance of the equi-ratio statistic. Without interiority the rule drops exactly the children below the surviving support's threshold. (6) The update law composes along a single active path, since ancestors select a node's active rounds but do not alter a realised signal. No joint convergence theorem for a hierarchy whose levels adapt simultaneously is claimed. (7) The one-bit interface admits exactly four deterministic memoryless distortions, and at a single selector passing the bit on unchanged delivers strictly higher mean quality upward than negation or constant transmission. Illustrations on synthetic hierarchies up to 16,384 leaves and three real datasets (3.4 billion comparisons, no mismatches) are consistent with the theory.

Understanding how structured internal structure emerges during neural network training is central to the study of deep learning. We investigate this phenomenon through the group composition task, where a two-layer neural network is trained to predict g_1 star g_2 for elements of a finite group G. By lifting the projected gradient flow to the Fourier domain, we demonstrate that the training dynamics are governed by a Riemannian gradient ascent on a representation-theoretic energy functional. We prove that, under random initialization, this flow drives each neuron to converge almost surely toward a single irreducible representation, while the cross-layer Fourier coefficients achieve a rotational rank-one alignment. This framework provides a representation-theoretic account of feature learning and characterizes a novel low-rank compression phenomenon for matrix-valued group representations. Moreover, for Abelian groups, we provide a complete population-level description: random initialization promotes uniform diversification across nontrivial representations and induces Haar-uniform phases, jointly approximating the indicator via a majority-vote mechanism. We further prove that both phase alignment and representation competition emerge with exponential convergence rates.

In this paper, we introduce Random Erasing, a new data augmentation method for training the convolutional neural network (CNN). In training, Random Erasing randomly selects a rectangle region in an image and erases its pixels with random values. In this process, training images with various levels of occlusion are generated, which reduces the risk of over-fitting and makes the model robust to occlusion. Random Erasing is parameter learning free, easy to implement, and can be integrated with most of the CNN-based recognition models. Albeit simple, Random Erasing is complementary to commonly used data augmentation techniques such as random cropping and flipping, and yields consistent improvement over strong baselines in image classification, object detection and person re-identification. Code is available at: https://github.com/zhunzhong07/Random-Erasing.

Consider a fixed universe of N=2^n elements and the uniform distribution over elements of some subset of size K. Given samples from this distribution, the task of complement sampling is to provide a sample from the complementary subset. We give a simple quantum algorithm that uses only a single quantum sample -- a single copy of the uniform superposition over elements of the subset. When K=N/2, we show that the quantum algorithm succeeds with probability 1, whereas any classical algorithm that succeeds with bounded probability of error requires a number of samples of the order of N. This shows that in a sample-to-sample setting, quantum computation can achieve the largest possible separation over classical computation. We show that the same bound can be lifted to prove average-case hardness, paving the way for demonstrations on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. It follows that under the assumption of the existence of one-way functions, complement sampling gives provable, verifiable and NISQable quantum advantage in a sample complexity setting.

Federated learning has emerged as a promising distributed learning paradigm that facilitates collaborative learning among multiple parties without transferring raw data. However, most existing federated learning studies focus on either horizontal or vertical data settings, where the data of different parties are assumed to be from the same feature or sample space. In practice, a common scenario is the hybrid data setting, where data from different parties may differ both in the features and samples. To address this, we propose HybridTree, a novel federated learning approach that enables federated tree learning on hybrid data. We observe the existence of consistent split rules in trees. With the help of these split rules, we theoretically show that the knowledge of parties can be incorporated into the lower layers of a tree. Based on our theoretical analysis, we propose a layer-level solution that does not need frequent communication traffic to train a tree. Our experiments demonstrate that HybridTree can achieve comparable accuracy to the centralized setting with low computational and communication overhead. HybridTree can achieve up to 8 times speedup compared with the other baselines.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Random masks define surprisingly effective sparse neural network models, as has been shown empirically. The resulting sparse networks can often compete with dense architectures and state-of-the-art lottery ticket pruning algorithms, even though they do not rely on computationally expensive prune-train iterations and can be drawn initially without significant computational overhead. We offer a theoretical explanation of how random masks can approximate arbitrary target networks if they are wider by a logarithmic factor in the inverse sparsity 1 / log(1/sparsity). This overparameterization factor is necessary at least for 3-layer random networks, which elucidates the observed degrading performance of random networks at higher sparsity. At moderate to high sparsity levels, however, our results imply that sparser networks are contained within random source networks so that any dense-to-sparse training scheme can be turned into a computationally more efficient sparse-to-sparse one by constraining the search to a fixed random mask. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in experiments for different pruning methods and propose particularly effective choices of initial layer-wise sparsity ratios of the random source network. As a special case, we show theoretically and experimentally that random source networks also contain strong lottery tickets.

Weight pruning is widely advocated for deploying Large Language Models on resource-constrained IoT and edge devices, yet its impact on model fairness remains poorly understood. We conduct a controlled empirical study of three instruction-tuned models (Gemma-2-9b-it, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, Phi-3.5-mini-instruct) across three pruning methods (Random, Magnitude, Wanda) at four sparsity levels (10-70%) on 12,148 BBQ bias benchmark items with 5 random seeds, totaling 2,368,860 inference records. Our results reveal a Smart Pruning Paradox: activation-aware pruning (Wanda) preserves perplexity nearly perfectly (just 3.5% increase at 50% sparsity for Mistral-7B), yet produces the highest bias amplification, with Stereotype Reliance Score increasing 83.7% and 47-59% of previously unbiased items developing new stereotypical behaviors at 70% sparsity. Random pruning destroys language capability entirely (perplexity exceeding 10^4 and reaching 10^8) but produces only random-chance bias. We further show that unstructured pruning provides zero storage savings and zero inference latency reduction on real edge hardware, undermining the primary motivation for its use in IoT deployment. Of 180 dense-vs-pruned comparisons, 141 (78.3%) are significant (p < 0.05) with mean |h| = 0.305. Published quantization studies report up to 21% of responses flipping between biased and unbiased states; our pruning results show transition rates nearly three times higher (47-59%), suggesting pruning poses a categorically greater risk to alignment than quantization. These findings demonstrate that perplexity-based evaluation provides false assurance of behavioral equivalence, and that IoT deployment pipelines require bias-aware validation before deploying pruned models at the edge.

Research on the distribution of prime numbers has revealed a dual character: deterministic in definition yet exhibiting statistical behavior reminiscent of random processes. In this paper we show that it is possible to use an image-focused machine learning model to measure the comparative regularity of prime number fields at specific regions of an Ulam spiral. Specifically, we demonstrate that in pure accuracy terms, models trained on blocks extracted from regions of the spiral in the vicinity of 500m outperform models trained on blocks extracted from the region representing integers lower than 25m. This implies existence of more easily learnable order in the former region than in the latter. Moreover, a detailed breakdown of precision and recall scores seem to imply that the model is favouring a different approach to classification in different regions of the spiral, focusing more on identifying prime patterns at lower numbers and more on eliminating composites at higher numbers. This aligns with number theory conjectures suggesting that at higher orders of magnitude we should see diminishing noise in prime number distributions, with averages (density, AP equidistribution) coming to dominate, while local randomness regularises after scaling by log x. Taken together, these findings point toward an interesting possibility: that machine learning can serve as a new experimental instrument for number theory. Notably, the method shows potential 1 for investigating the patterns in strong and weak primes for cryptographic purposes.

Recent soft prompt research has tried to improve reasoning by inserting trained vectors into LLM inputs, yet whether the gain comes from the learned content or from the act of injection itself has not been carefully separated. We study Random Soft Prompts (RSPs), which drop the training step entirely and append a freshly drawn sequence of random embedding vectors to the input. Each RSP vector is sampled from an isotropic Gaussian fitted to the entrywise mean and variance of the pretrained embedding table; the sequence carries no learned content, and yet reaches accuracy comparable to optimized soft prompts on math reasoning benchmarks in several settings. The mechanism unfolds in two stages: because attention has to absorb a never-seen-before random position, the distribution over the first few generated tokens flattens and reasoning trajectories branch, and as generation continues this influence dilutes naturally so the response commits to a single completion. We show that during inference RSPs lift early-stage token diversity and, combined with temperature sampling, widen Pass@N, the probability that at least one out of N attempts is correct. Beyond inference, we carry the same effect into DAPO training and demonstrate practical gains. Our contributions are: (i) RSP isolates the simplest form of soft prompt -- training-free, freshly resampled -- providing a unified lens for the structural effect of injection that variants otherwise differing in training and form all share; (ii) a theoretical and empirical validation of the underlying mechanism; and (iii) an extension from inference to training.

The minimum k-cut problem asks for the fewest edges whose removal leaves an input graph with at least k connected components. Previously, the best algorithm for simple graphs ran in O_k(n^{(1-varepsilon)k+O(1)}) time~HL22, showing that the \(n^k\) barrier can be broken up to a polynomial overhead. We give the first widetilde O_k(n^{ck})-time algorithm for Minimum k-Cut on simple graphs for an absolute constant c<1. More precisely, the running times are widetilde O(n^2) for k=3, widetilde O(n^{55/19}) for k=4, and widetilde O(n^{4.112007}) for k=5; for every kge6, the running time is \[ k^{O(k^2)}n^{1+(6k-6)k-1.749614{7k-10}}(\log n)^{O(k^2)}, \] whose exponent is frac67k-0.132ldots+O(1/k). The algorithm combines three ingredients. First, for weighted Minimum k-Cut we give a randomized \[ k^{O(k^2)}n^{k-2}(m+n)\log^3(n) \] -time algorithm: it perturbs the edge weights so that any minimum k-cut has a side with boundary strictly smaller than average. These then cut few edges of some tree in a logarithmic-size sample from a tree packing with high probability. After we enumerate them, we recursively compute (k-1)-cuts to complete them to the k-cuts of which they were a part. A variant of the perturbation and processing the entire packing support give a deterministic k^{O(k^2)}n^{k+O(1)}-time variant. Second, for cut size s, we give an improved FPT algorithm using a near-linear-time construction of an (O(slog^2 nloglog n),s) edge-unbreakable tree decomposition with O(slog^2 nloglog n) adhesion; this also gives a near-linear-time approximation algorithm for Minimum k-Cut. Third, we refine the border/island framework of~HL22, using rectangular matrix multiplication to recover singleton islands and balancing it against the improved FPT algorithm.

Hierarchical clustering of networks consists in finding a tree of communities, such that lower levels of the hierarchy reveal finer-grained community structures. There are two main classes of algorithms tackling this problem. Divisive (top-down) algorithms recursively partition the nodes into two communities, until a stopping rule indicates that no further split is needed. In contrast, agglomerative (bottom-up) algorithms first identify the smallest community structure and then repeatedly merge the communities using a linkage method. In this article, we establish theoretical guarantees for the recovery of the hierarchical tree and community structure of a Hierarchical Stochastic Block Model by a bottom-up algorithm. We also establish that this bottom-up algorithm attains the information-theoretic threshold for exact recovery at intermediate levels of the hierarchy. Notably, these recovery conditions are less restrictive compared to those existing for top-down algorithms. This shows that bottom-up algorithms extend the feasible region for achieving exact recovery at intermediate levels. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets confirm the superiority of bottom-up algorithms over top-down algorithms. We also observe that top-down algorithms can produce dendrograms with inversions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of hierarchical clustering techniques and their applications in network analysis.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

We introduce a rank-statistic approximation of f-divergences that avoids explicit density-ratio estimation by working directly with the distribution of ranks. For a resolution parameter K, we map the mismatch between two univariate distributions μ and ν to a rank histogram on { 0, ldots, K} and measure its deviation from uniformity via a discrete f-divergence, yielding a rank-statistic divergence estimator. We prove that the resulting estimator of the divergence is monotone in K, is always a lower bound of the true f-divergence, and we establish quantitative convergence rates for Ktoinfty under mild regularity of the quantile-domain density ratio. To handle high-dimensional data, we define the sliced rank-statistic f-divergence by averaging the univariate construction over random projections, and we provide convergence results for the sliced limit as well. We also derive finite-sample deviation bounds along with asymptotic normality results for the estimator. Finally, we empirically validate the approach by benchmarking against neural baselines and illustrating its use as a learning objective in generative modeling experiments.

Uniform random rotations are a useful primitive in applications such as fast Johnson-Lindenstrauss embeddings, kernel approximation, communication-efficient learning, and recent AI compression pipelines, but they are computationally expensive to generate and apply in high dimensions. A common practical replacement is repeated structured random rotations built from Walsh-Hadamard transforms and random sign diagonals. Applying the structured random rotation twice has been shown empirically to be useful, but the supporting theory is still limited. In this paper we study the approximation quality achieved when using this two-block structured Hadamard rotation. Our results are both positive and negative. On the positive side, we prove that every fixed coordinate of the two-block transform converges uniformly, over all inputs, to the corresponding coordinate of a uniformly rotated vector, with an explicit Kolmogorov-distance bound of order d^{-1/5}. On the negative side, we prove an explicit lower bound on the Wasserstein distance between the full vector distributions, showing that the two-block transform is not a globally accurate surrogate for a uniform random rotation in the worst case. For the extremal input used in the lower bound, we also prove a matching asymptotic upper bound, showing that the lower-bound scale is sharp for that input. Taken together, the results identify a clear separation between one-dimensional marginal behavior, where approximation improves with dimension, and full high-dimensional geometry, where a nonvanishing discrepancy remains. This provides a partial theoretical explanation for the empirical success of structured Hadamard rotations in some algorithms, while also clarifying the limitations of treating them as drop-in replacements for true uniform random rotations.

Split learning lets a client train a language model on a server without sending its text. The client runs the first layers itself and sends the server only their output, a vector of numbers for each token. During training, the server sends gradients back. We show that an observer at the split can rebuild most of the client's text from this traffic, and we measure how much the gradients help. On GPT-2, an attacker who holds only the publicly released weights of the client's layers recovers 94.20% of tokens from the activations alone and 97.38% when it also sees the gradients, 3.17 percentage points more 95% interval [2.72, 3.64]. Counted by document, the difference is much larger. The attacker rebuilds 13.71% of 32-token documents exactly without the gradients and 37.77% with them, because a document only counts when every token is right. How we count also changes how good a defence looks. Secret mixup, which blends each outgoing vector with a decoy, stops the attacker from rebuilding almost any document exactly, yet the attacker still recovers 83-91% of tokens. In a second experiment on GPT-2 and Qwen3-0.6B, where the server trains only a run of consecutive layers, the layer at which the run starts changes both model quality and leakage, even when the run's length is fixed. We recommend reporting leakage both per token and per document, and treating what a split model sends as being as sensitive as the text itself.

Split computing (neq split learning) is a promising approach to deep learning models for resource-constrained edge computing systems, where weak sensor (mobile) devices are wirelessly connected to stronger edge servers through channels with limited communication capacity. State-of-theart work on split computing presents methods for single tasks such as image classification, object detection, or semantic segmentation. The application of existing methods to multitask problems degrades model accuracy and/or significantly increase runtime latency. In this study, we propose Ladon, the first multi-task-head supervised compression model for multi-task split computing. Experimental results show that the multi-task supervised compression model either outperformed or rivaled strong lightweight baseline models in terms of predictive performance for ILSVRC 2012, COCO 2017, and PASCAL VOC 2012 datasets while learning compressed representations at its early layers. Furthermore, our models reduced end-to-end latency (by up to 95.4%) and energy consumption of mobile devices (by up to 88.2%) in multi-task split computing scenarios.

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

The Multi-Prize Lottery Ticket Hypothesis posits that randomly initialized neural networks contain several subnetworks that achieve comparable accuracy to fully trained models of the same architecture. However, current methods require that the network is sufficiently overparameterized. In this work, we propose a modification to two state-of-the-art algorithms (Edge-Popup and Biprop) that finds high-accuracy subnetworks with no additional storage cost or scaling. The algorithm, Iterative Weight Recycling, identifies subsets of important weights within a randomly initialized network for intra-layer reuse. Empirically we show improvements on smaller network architectures and higher prune rates, finding that model sparsity can be increased through the "recycling" of existing weights. In addition to Iterative Weight Recycling, we complement the Multi-Prize Lottery Ticket Hypothesis with a reciprocal finding: high-accuracy, randomly initialized subnetwork's produce diverse masks, despite being generated with the same hyperparameter's and pruning strategy. We explore the landscapes of these masks, which show high variability.

Human cognition naturally engages with abstract and fluid concepts, whereas existing reasoning models often rely on generating discrete tokens, potentially constraining their expressive capabilities. Recent advancements aim to address this limitation by enabling large language models (LLMs) to generate soft, abstract tokens, thus facilitating reasoning within a continuous concept space. This paper explores the `Soft Thinking' capabilities of various LLMs by examining the models' internal behavior using a suite of probing techniques. Contrary to the common belief that Soft Thinking enables the simultaneous exploration of diverse reasoning paths, our findings reveal that LLMs predominantly rely on the most influential component of the soft inputs during subsequent decoding steps. This reliance hinders the exploration of different reasoning paths and reduces vanilla Soft Thinking to a form of greedy decoding, obscuring the advantage of transmitting more information through Soft Tokens. To tackle this issue, we explore sampling strategies to introduce randomness, employing methods such as Dirichlet resampling and the Gumbel-Softmax trick. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating randomness can alleviate the limitations of vanilla approaches and unleash the potential of Soft Thinking. Notably, the Gumbel-Softmax trick provides adequate randomness with controlled smoothness, resulting in superior performance across eight reasoning benchmarks.

Providers of LLM-as-a-service have predominantly adopted a simple pricing model: users pay a fixed price per token. Consequently, one may think that the price two different users would pay for the same output string under the same input prompt is the same. In our work, we show that, surprisingly, this is not (always) true. We find empirical evidence that, particularly for non-english outputs, both proprietary and open-weights LLMs often generate the same (output) string with multiple different tokenizations, even under the same input prompt, and this in turn leads to arbitrary price variation. To address the problem of tokenization multiplicity, we introduce canonical generation, a type of constrained generation that restricts LLMs to only generate canonical tokenizations -- the unique tokenization in which each string is tokenized during the training process of an LLM. Further, we introduce an efficient sampling algorithm for canonical generation based on the Gumbel-Max trick. Experiments on a variety of natural language tasks demonstrate that our sampling algorithm for canonical generation is comparable to standard sampling in terms of performance and runtime, and it solves the problem of tokenization multiplicity.

We uncover how SGD interacts with batch normalization and can exhibit undesirable training dynamics such as divergence. More precisely, we study how Single Shuffle (SS) and Random Reshuffle (RR) -- two widely used variants of SGD -- interact surprisingly differently in the presence of batch normalization: RR leads to much more stable evolution of training loss than SS. As a concrete example, for regression using a linear network with batch normalization, we prove that SS and RR converge to distinct global optima that are "distorted" away from gradient descent. Thereafter, for classification we characterize conditions under which training divergence for SS and RR can, and cannot occur. We present explicit constructions to show how SS leads to distorted optima in regression and divergence for classification, whereas RR avoids both distortion and divergence. We validate our results by confirming them empirically in realistic settings, and conclude that the separation between SS and RR used with batch normalization is relevant in practice.

In this work, we formulate a new multi-task active learning setting in which the learner's goal is to solve multiple matrix completion problems simultaneously. At each round, the learner can choose from which matrix it receives a sample from an entry drawn uniformly at random. Our main practical motivation is market segmentation, where the matrices represent different regions with different preferences of the customers. The challenge in this setting is that each of the matrices can be of a different size and also of a different rank which is unknown. We provide and analyze a new algorithm, MAlocate that is able to adapt to the unknown ranks of the different matrices. We then give a lower-bound showing that our strategy is minimax-optimal and demonstrate its performance with synthetic experiments.

Top-k decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest k next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-k and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token distributions are sparse, and the noisy LLM probabilities need to be truncated. However, to our knowledge, a precise theoretical motivation for the use of top-k decoding is missing. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that both explains and generalizes top-k decoding. We view decoding at a fixed token as the recovery of a sparse probability distribution. We consider Bregman decoders obtained by minimizing a separable Bregman divergence (for both the primal and dual cases) with a sparsity-inducing ell_0 regularization. Despite the combinatorial nature of the objective, we show how to optimize it efficiently for a large class of divergences. We show that the optimal decoding strategies are greedy, and further that the loss function is discretely convex in k, so that binary search provably and efficiently finds the optimal k. We show that top-k decoding arises as a special case for the KL divergence, and identify new decoding strategies that have distinct behaviors (e.g., non-linearly up-weighting larger probabilities after re-normalization).

When rows of an n times d matrix A are given in a stream, we study algorithms for approximating the top eigenvector of the matrix {A}^TA (equivalently, the top right singular vector of A). We consider worst case inputs A but assume that the rows are presented to the streaming algorithm in a uniformly random order. We show that when the gap parameter R = σ_1(A)^2/σ_2(A)^2 = Ω(1), then there is a randomized algorithm that uses O(h cdot d cdot polylog(d)) bits of space and outputs a unit vector v that has a correlation 1 - O(1/R) with the top eigenvector v_1. Here h denotes the number of heavy rows in the matrix, defined as the rows with Euclidean norm at least |{A}|_F/d cdot operatorname{polylog(d)}. We also provide a lower bound showing that any algorithm using O(hd/R) bits of space can obtain at most 1 - Ω(1/R^2) correlation with the top eigenvector. Thus, parameterizing the space complexity in terms of the number of heavy rows is necessary for high accuracy solutions. Our results improve upon the R = Ω(log n cdot log d) requirement in a recent work of Price and Xun (FOCS 2024). We note that the algorithm of Price and Xun works for arbitrary order streams whereas our algorithm requires a stronger assumption that the rows are presented in a uniformly random order. We additionally show that the gap requirements in their analysis can be brought down to R = Ω(log^2 d) for arbitrary order streams and R = Ω(log d) for random order streams. The requirement of R = Ω(log d) for random order streams is nearly tight for their analysis as we obtain a simple instance with R = Ω(log d/loglog d) for which their algorithm, with any fixed learning rate, cannot output a vector approximating the top eigenvector v_1.

Verifying the provenance of content is crucial to the function of many organizations, e.g., educational institutions, social media platforms, firms, etc. This problem is becoming increasingly difficult as text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes almost indistinguishable from human-generated content. In addition, many institutions utilize in-house LLMs and want to ensure that external, non-sanctioned LLMs do not produce content within the institution. In this paper, we answer the following question: Given a piece of text, can we identify whether it was produced by LLM A or B (where B can be a human)? We model LLM-generated text as a sequential stochastic process with complete dependence on history and design zero-shot statistical tests to distinguish between (i) the text generated by two different sets of LLMs A (in-house) and B (non-sanctioned) and also (ii) LLM-generated and human-generated texts. We prove that the type I and type II errors for our tests decrease exponentially in the text length. In designing our tests, we derive concentration inequalities on the difference between log-perplexity and the average entropy of the string under A. Specifically, for a given string, we demonstrate that if the string is generated by A, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average entropy of the string under A, except with an exponentially small probability in string length. We also show that if B generates the text, except with an exponentially small probability in string length, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average cross-entropy of B and A. Lastly, we present preliminary experimental results to support our theoretical results. By enabling guaranteed (with high probability) finding of the origin of harmful LLM-generated text with arbitrary size, we can help combat misinformation.

In this paper we suggest analytical methods and associated algorithms for determining the sum of the subsets X_m of the set X_n (subset sum problem). Our algorithm has time complexity T=O(C_{n}^{k}) (k=[m/2], which significantly improves upon all known algorithms. This algorithm is applicable to all NP-complete problems. Moreover, the algorithm has memory complexity M=O(C_n^k), which makes our algorithm applicable to real-world problems. At first, we show how to use the algorithm for small dimensions m=4 ,5 ,6 ,7 ,8. After that we establish a general methodology for m>8. The main idea is to split the original set X_n (the algorithm becomes even faster with sorted sets) into smaller subsets and use parallel computing. This approach might be a significant breakthrough towards finding an efficient solution to NP-complete problems. As a result, it opens a way to prove the P versus NP problem (one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems).

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

We study the polynomial-time approximability of the optimal online stochastic bipartite matching algorithm, initiated by Papadimitriou et al. (EC'21). Here, nodes on one side of the graph are given upfront, while at each time t, an online node and its edge weights are drawn from a time-dependent distribution. The optimal algorithm is PSPACE-hard to approximate within some universal constant. We refer to this optimal algorithm, which requires time to think (compute), as a philosopher, and refer to polynomial-time online approximations of the above as philosopher inequalities. The best known philosopher inequality for online matching yields a 0.652-approximation. In contrast, the best possible prophet inequality, or approximation of the optimum offline solution, is 0.5. Our main results are a 0.678-approximate algorithm and a 0.685-approximation for a vertex-weighted special case. Notably, both bounds exceed the 0.666-approximation of the offline optimum obtained by Tang, Wu, and Wu (STOC'22) for the vertex-weighted problem. Building on our algorithms and the recent black-box reduction of Banihashem et al. (SODA'24), we provide polytime (pricing-based) truthful mechanisms which 0.678-approximate the social welfare of the optimal online allocation for bipartite matching markets. Our online allocation algorithm relies on the classic pivotal sampling algorithm (Srinivasan FOCS'01, Gandhi et al. J.ACM'06), along with careful discarding to obtain negative correlations between offline nodes. Consequently, the analysis boils down to examining the distribution of a weighted sum X of negatively correlated Bernoulli variables, specifically lower bounding its mass below a threshold, E[min(1,X)], of possible independent interest. Interestingly, our bound relies on an imaginary invocation of pivotal sampling.

Despite their ubiquity in language generation, it remains unknown why truncation sampling heuristics like nucleus sampling are so effective. We provide a theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of the truncation sampling by proving that truncation methods that discard tokens below some probability threshold (the most common type of truncation) can guarantee that all sampled tokens have nonzero true probability. However, thresholds are a coarse heuristic, and necessarily discard some tokens with nonzero true probability as well. In pursuit of a more precise sampling strategy, we show that we can leverage a known source of model errors, the softmax bottleneck, to prove that certain tokens have nonzero true probability, without relying on a threshold. Based on our findings, we develop an experimental truncation strategy and the present pilot studies demonstrating the promise of this type of algorithm. Our evaluations show that our method outperforms its threshold-based counterparts under automatic and human evaluation metrics for low-entropy (i.e., close to greedy) open-ended text generation. Our theoretical findings and pilot experiments provide both insight into why truncation sampling works, and make progress toward more expressive sampling algorithms that better surface the generative capabilities of large language models.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erdős-Rényi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an arbitrary planted subgraph Γ= Γ_n in an Erdős-Rényi random graph G(n, q_n), where the edge probability within Γ is p_n. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities p_n and q_n are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting Γ, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on Γ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of p_n and q_n as functions of n. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where q_n = Θ(n^{-α}) and p_n-q_n =Θ(q_n), with αin[0,2], as well as the critical regime where p_n=1-o(1) and q_n = Θ(n^{-α}), both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of Γ. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus farand many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of q_n.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) generate text by iteratively selecting positions to unmask and then predicting tokens at those positions. Yet MDMs lack proper likelihood evaluation: the evidence lower bound (ELBO) is not only a loose bound on log-likelihood, but, as we show, is also computed under the training distribution rather than the test-time distribution. We resolve this within our DUEL framework, which unifies leading MDM sampling strategies that employ deterministic position selection. We prove that DUEL samplers admit exact likelihood computation under the test-time distribution -- giving MDMs proper likelihood, and hence proper perplexity, for the first time. This proper perplexity is the natural analogue of autoregressive perplexity and lets us revisit key questions about MDMs. MDMs are substantially better than previously thought: the MDM-autoregressive perplexity gap shrinks by up to 32% on in-domain data and 82% on zero-shot benchmarks. DUEL enables the first principled comparison of fast,parallel samplers across compute budgets -- an analysis impossible with the ELBO and unreliable with generative perplexity -- identifying a strong default method. Finally, oracle search over position orderings reveals MDMs can far surpass autoregressive models -- achieving 36.47 vs. 52.11 perplexity on AG News -- demonstrating the ceiling of MDM performance has not yet been reached.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

We investigate the properties of uniform doubly stochastic random matrices, that is non-negative matrices conditioned to have their rows and columns sum to 1. The rescaled marginal distributions are shown to converge to exponential distributions and indeed even large sub-matrices of side-length o(n^{1/2-ε}) behave like independent exponentials. We determine the limiting empirical distribution of the singular values the the matrix. Finally the mixing time of the associated Markov chains is shown to be exactly 2 with high probability.

Mixture-of-Experts architectures have revolutionized scaling, yet the underlying logic of their routing remains a black box. In this paper, we uncover a fundamental governing principle: MoE routing is not merely selection, but a manifestation of Huffman Coding. We introduce the Frequency-Diversity Law, revealing that state-of-the-art models, such as Phi-3.5-MoE and Gemma-4-27B-A4B, spontaneously act as information-theoretic engines. These models allocate sparse expert resources for common tokens while invoking high-diversity expert committees for rare, complex tasks found in chain-of-thought trajectories. However, we identify a critical redundancy trap in Qwen3.5-35B-A3B: when effective sparsity (k/E_eff) is sufficiently low, load-balancing inadvertently imposes functional redundancy, masking the underlying Huffman efficiency signal. To bridge this gap, we propose Subset Difference Pruning, a surgical strategy to eliminate functional duplicates. We demonstrate that pruning does not degrade reasoning; instead, it unleashes the model's latent Huffman efficiency, forcing the logic to collapse into streamlined, high-density paths. Our findings suggest that the next generation of MoEs should move beyond forced load-balancing toward Minimum Description Length (MDL) optimality, assigning shorter expert-routing codes to high-frequency information and longer, more diverse codes to low-frequency information, thereby transforming routing from a heuristic into a principled compression engine.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

We study convergence lower bounds of without-replacement stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for solving smooth (strongly-)convex finite-sum minimization problems. Unlike most existing results focusing on final iterate lower bounds in terms of the number of components n and the number of epochs K, we seek bounds for arbitrary weighted average iterates that are tight in all factors including the condition number kappa. For SGD with Random Reshuffling, we present lower bounds that have tighter kappa dependencies than existing bounds. Our results are the first to perfectly close the gap between lower and upper bounds for weighted average iterates in both strongly-convex and convex cases. We also prove weighted average iterate lower bounds for arbitrary permutation-based SGD, which apply to all variants that carefully choose the best permutation. Our bounds improve the existing bounds in factors of n and kappa and thereby match the upper bounds shown for a recently proposed algorithm called GraB.

In this paper, we provide a finite random iterated function system satisfying the open set condition, for which the random version of Bowen's formula fails to hold. This counterexample shows that analogous results established for random recursive constructions are not always obtained for random iterated function systems.

We solve a longstanding problem in Bernoulli percolation: we derive sharp Ornstein--Zernike asymptotics for the probability that two distant points are connected by a finite cluster in the whole supercritical regime. Our proof has two main ingredients. First, the renewal structure from Fridbergh and Hammond (2024) yields an a priori bound on cluster volume. Second, we adapt the coarse-graining and irreducible-cluster framework of Companion, Ioffe, Velenik (2008) to finite supercritical connections. The main distinction from the subcritical analysis is that our argument does not require a separation of masses between irreducible and unrestricted finite connections. The volume bound and a modified coarse-graining construction instead provide stretched-exponential tails for the effective random-walk increments, which suffice to obtain the sharp asymptotics.

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.

Block-diffusion drafters like dFlash generate an entire block of draft tokens in a single forward pass, drastically reducing the overhead of multiple-token drafting in speculative decoding. The crucial final step of the single-pass discrete denoising process involves using the logit distribution at each position to sample conditionally independent tokens. The resulting draft is thus a set of per-position marginals, rather than a joint distribution: no draft token is guaranteed to depend on its predecessors. Such independently sampled marginals tend to produce sequences with tokens that are individually likely, but jointly improbable under the target model's distribution, which verifies each token conditionally. This can cause early rejection and limits acceptance length. To address this, we propose xPress as a means to restore the missing causality in diffusion drafters. xPress is a lightweight causal refiner that reconciles the whole diffusion block at once through parallel refinement, restoring and propagating causal dependencies across the draft without a token-by-token loop. On Qwen3-8B, across seven math, code, and chat benchmarks, xPress raises acceptance length by about 30% on average (up to +56%) and its end-to-end decoding throughput by about 1.3 on average (up to 1.7) compared to the original dFlash diffusion drafter.

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

Random pruning is arguably the most naive way to attain sparsity in neural networks, but has been deemed uncompetitive by either post-training pruning or sparse training. In this paper, we focus on sparse training and highlight a perhaps counter-intuitive finding, that random pruning at initialization can be quite powerful for the sparse training of modern neural networks. Without any delicate pruning criteria or carefully pursued sparsity structures, we empirically demonstrate that sparsely training a randomly pruned network from scratch can match the performance of its dense equivalent. There are two key factors that contribute to this revival: (i) the network sizes matter: as the original dense networks grow wider and deeper, the performance of training a randomly pruned sparse network will quickly grow to matching that of its dense equivalent, even at high sparsity ratios; (ii) appropriate layer-wise sparsity ratios can be pre-chosen for sparse training, which shows to be another important performance booster. Simple as it looks, a randomly pruned subnetwork of Wide ResNet-50 can be sparsely trained to outperforming a dense Wide ResNet-50, on ImageNet. We also observed such randomly pruned networks outperform dense counterparts in other favorable aspects, such as out-of-distribution detection, uncertainty estimation, and adversarial robustness. Overall, our results strongly suggest there is larger-than-expected room for sparse training at scale, and the benefits of sparsity might be more universal beyond carefully designed pruning. Our source code can be found at https://github.com/VITA-Group/Random_Pruning.

In bipartite networks, community structures are restricted to being disassortative, in that nodes of one type are grouped according to common patterns of connection with nodes of the other type. This makes the stochastic block model (SBM), a highly flexible generative model for networks with block structure, an intuitive choice for bipartite community detection. However, typical formulations of the SBM do not make use of the special structure of bipartite networks. Here we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of the SBM and a corresponding algorithm to efficiently find communities in bipartite networks which parsimoniously chooses the number of communities. The biSBM improves community detection results over general SBMs when data are noisy, improves the model resolution limit by a factor of 2, and expands our understanding of the complicated optimization landscape associated with community detection tasks. A direct comparison of certain terms of the prior distributions in the biSBM and a related high-resolution hierarchical SBM also reveals a counterintuitive regime of community detection problems, populated by smaller and sparser networks, where nonhierarchical models outperform their more flexible counterpart.

In pursuit of participatory budgeting (PB) outcomes with broader fairness guarantees, we initiate the study of lotteries over discrete PB outcomes. As the projects have heterogeneous costs, the amount spent may not be equal ex ante and ex post. To address this, we develop a technique to bound the amount by which the ex-post spend differs from the ex-ante spend -- the property is termed budget balanced up to one project (BB1). With respect to fairness, we take a best-of-both-worlds perspective, seeking outcomes that are both ex-ante and ex-post fair. Towards this goal, we initiate a study of ex-ante fairness properties in PB, including Individual Fair Share (IFS), Unanimous Fair Share (UFS) and their stronger variants, as well as Group Fair Share (GFS). We show several incompatibility results between these ex-ante fairness notions and existing ex-post concepts based on justified representation. One of our main contributions is a randomized algorithm which simultaneously satisfies ex-ante Strong UFS, ex-post full justified representation (FJR) and ex-post BB1 for PB with binary utilities.

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

Citizens' assemblies are a form of democratic innovation in which a randomly selected panel of constituents deliberates on questions of public interest. We study a novel goal for the selection of panel members: maximizing the entropy of the distribution over possible panels. We design algorithms that sample from maximum-entropy distributions, potentially subject to constraints on the individual selection probabilities. We investigate the properties of these algorithms theoretically, including in terms of their resistance to manipulation and transparency. We benchmark our algorithms on a large set of real assembly lotteries in terms of their intersectional diversity and the probability of satisfying unseen representation constraints, and we obtain favorable results on both measures. We deploy one of our algorithms on a website for citizens' assembly practitioners.

Benchmark compression reduces the often prohibitive time and cost of model evaluation by evaluating models on a small benchmark subset that closely matches full-benchmark results. To quantify estimation error, we derive an accurate analytical approximation to the error distribution when estimating full-benchmark scores from a subset, showing that most subsets yield small errors, while a few produce much larger errors, resulting in a long-tailed distribution. This means random sampling alone can achieve surprisingly strong performance with high probability, but remains unstable due to rare large errors. We further show that this instability is inherent to modern foundation models and persists even as more models are evaluated. Based on these findings, we introduce BestRand, a stable and low-cost benchmark compression method that preserves the efficiency of random sampling while substantially reducing its high-error tail. We validate BestRand on 70+ text, multimodal, and agent benchmarks, and further extend it to VLA evaluation. Compared with competitive methods, BestRand reduces high-error risk by 50.2% and estimation error by 16.4% on average, while requiring only 51.3% of the construction cost. It further reduces OOD estimation error by 21.8% on average across score-range, model-family, and temporal shifts. Together, our theory provides practical guidance for understanding and predicting the accuracy and reliability of benchmark compression, while BestRand enables stable and accurate compression at low cost. The code and data are publicly available onhttps://github.com/George-Ling3/BestRand.

Combinatorial optimization (CO) is naturally discrete, making machine learning based on differentiable optimization inapplicable. Karalias & Loukas (2020) adapted the probabilistic method to incorporate CO into differentiable optimization. Their work ignited the research on unsupervised learning for CO, composed of two main components: probabilistic objectives and derandomization. However, each component confronts unique challenges. First, deriving objectives under various conditions (e.g., cardinality constraints and minimum) is nontrivial. Second, the derandomization process is underexplored, and the existing derandomization methods are either random sampling or naive rounding. In this work, we aim to tackle prevalent (i.e., commonly involved) conditions in unsupervised CO. First, we concretize the targets for objective construction and derandomization with theoretical justification. Then, for various conditions commonly involved in different CO problems, we derive nontrivial objectives and derandomization to meet the targets. Finally, we apply the derivations to various CO problems. Via extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world graphs, we validate the correctness of our derivations and show our empirical superiority w.r.t. both optimization quality and speed.

Dataset distillation aims to synthesize small datasets with little information loss from original large-scale ones for reducing storage and training costs. Recent state-of-the-art methods mainly constrain the sample synthesis process by matching synthetic images and the original ones regarding gradients, embedding distributions, or training trajectories. Although there are various matching objectives, currently the strategy for selecting original images is limited to naive random sampling. We argue that random sampling overlooks the evenness of the selected sample distribution, which may result in noisy or biased matching targets. Besides, the sample diversity is also not constrained by random sampling. These factors together lead to optimization instability in the distilling process and degrade the training efficiency. Accordingly, we propose a novel matching strategy named as Dataset distillation by REpresentAtive Matching (DREAM), where only representative original images are selected for matching. DREAM is able to be easily plugged into popular dataset distillation frameworks and reduce the distilling iterations by more than 8 times without performance drop. Given sufficient training time, DREAM further provides significant improvements and achieves state-of-the-art performances.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

Generating diverse responses from large language models (LLMs) is crucial for applications such as planning/search and synthetic data generation, where diversity provides distinct answers across generations. Prior approaches rely on increasing temperature to increase diversity. However, contrary to popular belief, we show not only does this approach produce lower quality individual generations as temperature increases, but it depends on model's next-token probabilities being similar to the true distribution of answers. We propose , an alternative approach that uses the language model itself to partition the space into strata. At inference, a random stratum is selected and a sample drawn from within the strata. To measure diversity, we introduce CoverageQA, a dataset of underspecified questions with multiple equally plausible answers, and assess diversity by measuring KL Divergence between the output distribution and uniform distribution over valid ground truth answers. As computing probability per response/solution for proprietary models is infeasible, we measure recall on ground truth solutions. Our evaluation show using SimpleStrat achieves higher recall by 0.05 compared to GPT-4o and 0.36 average reduction in KL Divergence compared to Llama 3.

Modeling and estimating mixed memberships for overlapping unipartite un-weighted networks has been well studied in recent years. However, to our knowledge, there is no model for a more general case, the overlapping bipartite weighted networks. To close this gap, we introduce a novel model, the Bipartite Mixed Membership Distribution-Free (BiMMDF) model. Our model allows an adjacency matrix to follow any distribution as long as its expectation has a block structure related to node membership. In particular, BiMMDF can model overlapping bipartite signed networks and it is an extension of many previous models, including the popular mixed membership stochastic blcokmodels. An efficient algorithm with a theoretical guarantee of consistent estimation is applied to fit BiMMDF. We then obtain the separation conditions of BiMMDF for different distributions. Furthermore, we also consider missing edges for sparse networks. The advantage of BiMMDF is demonstrated in extensive synthetic networks and eight real-world networks.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

A benchmark score means nothing without knowing what a trivial method achieves and what the best possible method could achieve. We construct both bounds for a task with a rare kind of ground truth: predicting which sentences a crowd of readers -- highlighting for their own purposes, unpaid, uninstructed, and blind to each other -- marked in 120 web documents. The floor is naive truncation (lead); the ceiling is a split-half oracle: half the crowd predicting the other half. The gap between them is +0.2028 AP [+0.1698, +0.2342, domain-clustered], and three findings structure it. First, the gap is semantic: position and length features recover 5% of it. Second, frontier language models reach 35-53% of it zero-shot -- far above classical baselines, far below the crowd; a state-of-the-art prompt compressor (LLMLingua-2) lands below the floor, indistinguishable from random selection. Third, an unweighted cross-vendor fusion of five frontier rankings plus a position prior reaches 60%, beating the best single model by +0.0159 [+0.0044, +0.0269; Holm p=0.019] -- a gain that survives ablation of its best member, split-half arm selection, prompt paraphrase, and label, gate, and seed perturbations, and was CONFIRMED by a pre-registered replication on 217 independent documents (+0.0179, Holm p=0.042). Finally, the bracket compresses: distilling the fusion into one open-weight 8B student that reads the whole document retains 90% of the fusion's edge and reaches statistical parity with the strongest single frontier model (+0.0070 [-0.0068, +0.0200]), where a local-context student retains only 63% -- the crowd's signal lives in document-level structure, and the cheapest known improvement is to ask several different models and average.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we interpret the resulting training dynamics and the phase transitions that characterize different trajectories? To understand the effect of randomness on the dynamics and outcomes of neural network training, we train models multiple times with different random seeds and compute a variety of metrics throughout training, such as the L_2 norm, mean, and variance of the neural network's weights. We then fit a hidden Markov model (HMM) over the resulting sequences of metrics. The HMM represents training as a stochastic process of transitions between latent states, providing an intuitive overview of significant changes during training. Using our method, we produce a low-dimensional, discrete representation of training dynamics on grokking tasks, image classification, and masked language modeling. We use the HMM representation to study phase transitions and identify latent "detour" states that slow down convergence.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Language model training in distributed settings is limited by the communication cost of gradient exchanges. In this short note, we extend recent work from Malladi et al. (2023), using shared randomness to perform distributed fine-tuning with low bandwidth. The method is a natural decentralized extension of memory-efficient Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA). Each iteration, each machine seeds a Random Number Generator (RNG) to perform local reproducible perturbations on model weights and calculate and exchange scalar projected gradients, which are then used to update each model. By using a (machine, sample) identifier as the random seed, each model can regenerate one another's perturbations. As machines only exchange single-byte projected gradients, this is highly communication efficient. There are also potential privacy benefits, as projected gradients may be calculated on different training data, and models never access the other's data. Our approach not only drastically reduces communication bandwidth requirements but also accommodates dynamic addition or removal of machines during the training process and retains the memory-efficient and inference-only advantages of recent work. We perform proof-of-concept experiments to demonstrate the potential usefulness of this method, building off of rich literature on distributed optimization and memory-efficient training.

To fully understand the behavior of a large language model (LLM) requires our understanding of its input space. If this input space differs from our assumption, our understanding of and conclusions about the LLM is likely flawed, regardless of its architecture. Here, we elucidate the structure of the token embeddings, the input domain for LLMs, both empirically and theoretically. We present a generalized and statistically testable model where the neighborhood of each token splits into well-defined signal and noise dimensions. This model is based on a generalization of a manifold called a fiber bundle, so we denote our hypothesis test as the ``fiber bundle null.'' Failing to reject the null is uninformative, but rejecting it at a specific token indicates that token has a statistically significant local structure, and so is of interest to us. By running our test over several open-source LLMs, each with unique token embeddings, we find that the null is frequently rejected, and so the token subspace is provably not a fiber bundle and hence also not a manifold. As a consequence of our findings, when an LLM is presented with two semantically equivalent prompts, and if one prompt contains a token implicated by our test, that prompt will likely exhibit more output variability proportional to the local signal dimension of the token.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

We study the fine-grained uniform convergence behavior of halfspaces beyond worst-case VC bounds. For inhomogeneous halfspaces in R^d with dge 2, we show that standard first-order VC bounds are essentially tight: even consistent hypotheses can incur population error Θ(dln(n/d)/n), and in the agnostic setting the deviation scales as τln(1/τ) at true error τ. In contrast, homogeneous halfspaces in R^2 exhibit a markedly different behavior. In the realizable case, every hypothesis consistent with the sample has error O(1/n). In the agnostic case, we prove a bandwise, log-free deviation bound on each dyadic risk band via a critical-wedge localization argument. Unioning over bands incurs only a lnln n overhead, and we establish a matching lower bound showing this overhead is unavoidable. Together, these results give a fine-grained and nearly complete picture of uniform convergence for halfspaces, revealing sharp dimensional and structural thresholds.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Lloyd's k-means algorithm is one of the most widely used clustering methods. We prove that in high-dimensional, high-noise settings, the algorithm exhibits catastrophic failure: with high probability, essentially every partition of the data is a fixed point. Consequently, Lloyd's algorithm simply returns its initial partition - even when the underlying clusters are trivially recoverable by other methods. In contrast, we prove that Hartigan's k-means algorithm does not exhibit this pathology. Our results show the stark difference between these algorithms and offer a theoretical explanation for the empirical difficulties often observed with k-means in high dimensions.

We study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all index subsets of the set {1,...,n} with the probability of a subset S proportional to the determinant of the submatrix L_S of some ntimes n p.s.d. matrix L, where L_S corresponds to the entries of L indexed by S. Known as a determinantal point process, this distribution is used in machine learning to induce diversity in subset selection. In practice, we often wish to sample multiple subsets S with small expected size k = E[|S|] ll n from a very large matrix L, so it is important to minimize the preprocessing cost of the procedure (performed once) as well as the sampling cost (performed repeatedly). For this purpose, we propose a new algorithm which, given access to L, samples exactly from a determinantal point process while satisfying the following two properties: (1) its preprocessing cost is n cdot poly(k), i.e., sublinear in the size of L, and (2) its sampling cost is poly(k), i.e., independent of the size of L. Prior to our results, state-of-the-art exact samplers required O(n^3) preprocessing time and sampling time linear in n or dependent on the spectral properties of L. We also give a reduction which allows using our algorithm for exact sampling from cardinality constrained determinantal point processes with ncdotpoly(k) time preprocessing.

In the era of large language models, creative writing quality lacks a computable theoretical anchor. The dominant approaches are rubric scoring -- decomposing holistic aesthetic judgment into sub-scores -- and RLHF preference signals -- replacing quality with group votes. Both bypass the statistical structure of the text itself. This paper provides an information-theoretic foundation to fill this gap. We propose 'calibrated surprise' as the information-theoretic essence of excellent creative writing. This judgment matches reading intuition and covers its opposite. This literary judgment admits a precise mathematical formulation. Under full-dimensional constraints Y, feasible writing choices are forced into an extremely narrow space. The rare survivors are, from the unconstrained perspective, exactly the least predictable choices. Both are measured precisely by Shannon mutual information I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y) -- 'calibrated' corresponds to H(X|Y) approaching 0; 'surprising' corresponds to H(X) going high. The subtraction structure of the formula naturally separates 'well-grounded surprise' from 'pure noise'. We use token-level logprobs from Qwen1.5-7B as an operational proxy for the ideal reader's probability distribution. Across 20 pairs (12 Chinese / 8 English) of high-quality vs. systematically degraded literary passages, 20/20 pairs support the core prediction: high-quality passages have systematically higher I(X;Y) than their degraded versions.

Finite symmetric groups S_n are essential in fields such as combinatorics, physics, and chemistry. However, learning a probability distribution over S_n poses significant challenges due to its intractable size and discrete nature. In this paper, we introduce SymmetricDiffusers, a novel discrete diffusion model that simplifies the task of learning a complicated distribution over S_n by decomposing it into learning simpler transitions of the reverse diffusion using deep neural networks. We identify the riffle shuffle as an effective forward transition and provide empirical guidelines for selecting the diffusion length based on the theory of random walks on finite groups. Additionally, we propose a generalized Plackett-Luce (PL) distribution for the reverse transition, which is provably more expressive than the PL distribution. We further introduce a theoretically grounded "denoising schedule" to improve sampling and learning efficiency. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performances on solving tasks including sorting 4-digit MNIST images, jigsaw puzzles, and traveling salesman problems. Our code is released at https://github.com/DSL-Lab/SymmetricDiffusers.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.

We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured weighted sums under exchangeability, extending beyond the classical framework of independent terms. We develop Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds provided with structure-dependent exchangeability. Along the way, we recover known results in weighted sum of exchangeable random variables and i.i.d. sums of random matrices to the optimal constants. Notably, we develop a sharper concentration bound for combinatorial sum of matrix arrays than the results previously derived from Chatterjee's method of exchangeable pairs. For applications, the richer structures provide us with novel analytical tools for estimating the average effect of multi-factor response models and studying fixed-design sketching methods in federated averaging. We apply our results to these problems, and find that our theoretical predictions are corroborated by numerical evidence.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) theoretically permit token decoding in arbitrary order, a flexibility that could enable richer exploration of reasoning paths than autoregressive (AR) LLMs. In practice, however, random-order decoding often hurts generation quality. To mitigate this, low-confidence remasking improves single-sample quality (e.g., Pass@1) by prioritizing confident tokens, but it also suppresses exploration and limits multi-sample gains (e.g., Pass@k), creating a fundamental quality--exploration dilemma. In this paper, we provide a unified explanation of this dilemma. We show that low-confidence remasking improves a myopic proxy for quality while provably constraining the entropy of the induced sequence distribution. To overcome this limitation, we characterize the optimal distribution that explicitly balances quality and exploration, and develop a simple Independent Metropolis--Hastings sampler that approximately targets this distribution during decoding. Experiments across a range of reasoning benchmarks including MATH500, AIME24/25, HumanEval, and MBPP show that our approach yields better exploration-quality tradeoff than both random and low-confidence remasking.

We show how to compute any symmetric Boolean function on n variables over any field (as well as the integers) with a probabilistic polynomial of degree O(n log(1/ε)) and error at most ε. The degree dependence on n and ε is optimal, matching a lower bound of Razborov (1987) and Smolensky (1987) for the MAJORITY function. The proof is constructive: a low-degree polynomial can be efficiently sampled from the distribution. This polynomial construction is combined with other algebraic ideas to give the first subquadratic time algorithm for computing a (worst-case) batch of Hamming distances in superlogarithmic dimensions, exactly. To illustrate, let c(n) : N rightarrow N. Suppose we are given a database D of n vectors in {0,1}^{c(n) log n} and a collection of n query vectors Q in the same dimension. For all u in Q, we wish to compute a v in D with minimum Hamming distance from u. We solve this problem in n^{2-1/O(c(n) log^2 c(n))} randomized time. Hence, the problem is in "truly subquadratic" time for O(log n) dimensions, and in subquadratic time for d = o((log^2 n)/(log log n)^2). We apply the algorithm to computing pairs with maximum inner product, closest pair in ell_1 for vectors with bounded integer entries, and pairs with maximum Jaccard coefficients.

In recent years, random matrices have come to play a major role in computational mathematics, but most of the classical areas of random matrix theory remain the province of experts. Over the last decade, with the advent of matrix concentration inequalities, research has advanced to the point where we can conquer many (formerly) challenging problems with a page or two of arithmetic. The aim of this monograph is to describe the most successful methods from this area along with some interesting examples that these techniques can illuminate.